Showing posts with label stock market. Show all posts
Showing posts with label stock market. Show all posts

Friday, October 10, 2014

Predictions for AMD

AMD stock prices have fallen roughly 20% combined in the past couple of days, precipitated by the changing of guard in its top leadership. Lisa Su has replaced Rory Read as the new CEO of AMD, becoming the first female top executive in the company. The general sentiment on Wall Street appears to favor Lisa Su, but concerned about the timing of the announcement. To say the least, the change is both unexpected and abrupt, belied by the company's Q3 earnings release next Wednesday (10/15). 

Unfortunately for me, I made a significant purchase of AMD stock a couple of days ago (which means I'm effectively down 20% on my new investment). This also means that had I had this foresight, then I would have been able to acquire 20% more AMD stock had I waited 2 days. Sometimes the market gets you. Good thing I'm a value investor...

To keep this post short, I'll just share my immediate thoughts about the recent events for AMD:
  1. I remain bullish on the company and its future outlook. While the past couple of years have been tough, with the company squeezed between a rock (Intel) and a hard place (Nvidia), portfolio diversification of AMD's product lines has started paying dividends. Its new initiative in ARM chips and monopoly over current generation consoles (e.g. Xbox One PS4, Wii U) will at very least guarantee steady income for the next 5 years. That being said...
  2. ...the stock will fall some more before next week is over. I'm predicting a weaker than expected revenue growth for its Q3 earnings, which I suspect is the reason Rory Read was ousted so suddenly and unexpectedly. Expectation is for the stock to fall to around $2.20 before it climbs back up.
  3. Lenovo will begin offering much more products with AMD chipsets than previously. Despite the announcement yesterday of Lenovo Yoga 3 Pro series, which marks the first use of Intel's newest Core M line of processors, I firmly believe that new CEO Lisa Su's background as a former executive in Lenovo will influence her old company to adopt more AMD chipsets. Everyone may be praising her technical and industry background, the elephant in the room is that Lenovo is currently world's #1 computer manufacturer. Intel may boast faster chips but 90% of Lenovo's user base will neither notice the speed difference, nor particularly care if they're given an AMD-based laptop instead. AMD's chips are cheaper than Intel's so there's that to seal this deal.
Taking the 3 points above together, it seems clear to me that AMD is a severely undervalued stock at the moment and has incredible upside in the next couple of years. It has a promising product roadmap ahead that targets industries that its direct competitors in Nvidia and Intel have largely ignored. With both Nvidia and Intel firmly entrenched (and struggling) to battle it out in the ARM market with the likes of Qualcomm and MediaTrek, this is a chance for AMD to buckle down and get ahead. Needless to say, I'll be looking to further increasing my AMD stake next week.

Thursday, September 25, 2014

Thoughts on Apple Pay

I'm feeling very bullish on Apple these days. Despite the #bendgate controversy that began a few days ago, they've done a tremendous job with the unveiling of not only 2 versions of iPhone 6 but also the Apple Watch. I like them so much that I upped my holdings in its stock this morning.

The star of the show, in my opinion, was none of the gadgets Tim Cook revealed during the past 9.09.14 event. Sure the iPhone 6 is snazzy, loaded with the latest processors, camera technology, and even the bigger displays. It's bound to sell millions upon millions -- especially bringing back users who migrated to other platforms for bigger displays. The Apple Watch will also be a huge hit, mainly for its tight integration in Apple's ecosystem and as a fashion accessory. But both of these are just gadgets at the end of the day. The real star was: Apple Pay.


As a tech enthusiast, I've heard about mobile payments before and even have Google Wallet installed previously. But never before has a company with Apple's leverage entered such as space and it's bound to revolutionize the way we think and use mobile payments going forward. Want to know how much leverage Apple has? A good example is looking at the emails sent out by banks and credit card companies to announce their support for Apple Pay. Every single one of mine have sent me emails to profess their love and support. That is absolutely staggering. Not many companies are able to pull off Day 1 third-part support the way Apple has done it here. Rumors are transaction costs are bound to decrease as Apple Pay is supposedly more secure than other means.

More importantly however, is the ease of use. For the first time last week, I used the Starbucks app installed on my Android phone to pay for a couple cups of coffee at Starbucks. Nothing extraordinary about this event except for that it was: (1) my first time ever doing such a transaction, and (2) surprised by how easy and seamless it was. The latter in particular stood out as I returned the following day to do the same, with same results. I swear that the experience (not the coffee) was so good that I felt more attached and loyal to Starbucks. Yet Apple Pay promises to be even more seamless as you no longer would have to go through the motions of unlocking your phone screen and opening an app to pay the transaction -- if Apple's demo holds true, all you have to do is hold your finger to the fingerprint scanner for a second and pay the payment receiver with your phone. Voila! Takes about a second or two, and the transaction is completed.

Overall, I think the changes Apple Pay will usher in are two. On one hand, people will purchase more things and use their phones to pay more frequently due to how easy and seamless the process is. No longer do you have to take out your wallet (after finding it first), pick out the card you want, swipe it, enter your zip code, and (oftentimes) signing the receipt for the cashier. All you'd have to do with Apple Pay is pull out your phone, hold, tap, and done. It's that simple. The second change will be what I mentioned before -- strangely enough, I felt more attached to Starbucks despite McDonalds being my preferred coffee venue (disclaimer: coffee is a commodity to me, so the cheapest vendor gets my business). But likewise I can see myself going to shops and restaurants that accept Apple Pay more than those that do not. What you'll see then, is a domino effect of stores and restaurants scrambling after one another to install NFC-payment receivers for Apple Pay and other forms of mobile payment (e.g. Google Wallet).

Now, everything is not all rosy as Apple Pay has just been introduced and the public hasn't really been using mobile payments. But Apple does a heck of a job marketing its products and features, so I expect people to catch on quickly. The iPhone 6 will eventually give way to future generations and the same goes for Apple Watch. But Apple Pay as a platform is here to stay and it's going to be absolutely huge. I've put money in my mouth by investing significantly into Apple today, with a strong possibility to further increasing my holdings in the near future.

Oh and one more thing: Apple takes a cut out of every transaction made using Apple Pay.

Tuesday, August 16, 2011

Follow Up: Dow Jones Drops 513

When I last wrote about the precipitous drop of the U.S. stock market, it turned out to be the beginning (not the end) of some ridiculous movements. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 513 points on the day I wrote, which was followed by another drop the following day, then another, then a huge rebound, then another drop before finishing with a rebound. The net change from August 4th to today is actually very minor: less than 100 points. But as I noted before, the movements in-between offered a "golden opportunity".

The question on your mind is, what did I end up doing? For starters, I invested in most of the companies I had expressed interest in before: Pepco, Nokia, and Clearwire. I would have brought more of others, such as Ford and Morgan Stanley, but ran out of capital. My investment was pretty evenly split between the 3 companies I ended up buying stock in -- despite very different number of shares based on their share prices. Here is the breakdown:
  • 1215 shares of Clearwire @ $1.42-1.78-- I ended up buying more than anticipated because it kept falling. The buy-in was made in 3 different stages, coming to an average price of $1.73 per share.
  • 315 shares of Nokia @ $4.89 -- I brought less of Nokia than expected, due to the optimism on Clearwire and the realization that I wanted some stability in this capital influx. That so-called stability is in...
  • 200 shares of Pepco @ $17.64 -- I always wanted to own Pepco for their high-yet-constant dividends. When its price fell to below $18, I made a move to buy more than the originally-planned 150 shares.
As of today, I am up about 14% on this investment. It's nothing breathtaking but I'm happy with the results thus far. I have actually sold 200 shares of Nokia yesterday due to its price jump -- the goal is to buy back more eventually, when the price goes back down.

UPDATE 08-19-2011
Stock price of Clearwire jumped 30% this morning on rumors that Sprint is seeking to buy out the rest of investors (e.g. Comcast) in the company. Not sure why on earth Sprint would want to do that, but I'm happy at the news since it means the stock price has doubled since my purchase. This article also makes a compelling argument to buy even more in the company. I'm thinking about it. Nonetheless, I do not think Clearwire is something to be invested in the long-term of more than a year. The industry is simple changing too fast.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Dow Jones Drops 513 = a Golden Opportunity

As a finance person, it was impossible to ignore the precipitous drop today of the U.S. stock market. The Dow Jones Industry Average (DJIA) dropped 513 points, ending the day at 11,384 (-4.3%). It is the worst single-day drop since 2008. The other stock indexes did not fare any better: the S&P 500 dropped 60 (or 4.8%) and the Nasdaq dropped 137 (or 5.1%). I am really glad I am not a trader on Wall Street, or involved in any facet of stock trading. Can't imagine the chaos on the trade floor.


But I like to believe I am a value investor. This means that amidst the black and gloom, I see a golden opportunity to invest in the market. As Warren Buffett so famously said, "You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out." What he did not mention is that real profits can be made when swimming against this tide. Last time I made an investment into my stock portfolio was the summer of 2009. Earlier today I just wired a fresh investment into my brokerage account -- just looking for the transfer to be recognized now...hopefully by mid-day tomorrow. Sure I've been hit by today's negative stock movements, but do did everyone else.

So what companies am I eyeing? The usual culprits I mentioned in the last post apply. In particular, I have my sights on Nokia and Pepco Holdings. Yet I am not able to buy into all these companies, at least not without a massive influx of capital (which I neither have nor would want to throw down). Therefore I will be a bit choosy and select only a few:
  • Nokia (~500 shares) -- I am a fan of the company and believe in its comeback in the near future. There is no way the company's stock is worth only $5 per share. Considering its strong patent portfolio, market presence, and new partnership with Microsoft, its price ceiling should be at least double.
  • Clearwire (~1000 shares) -- I had not considered this company before but, after seeing its stock drop more than 25% today, I am going to take a gamble on it. Operating expenses may be up, but the company's technology still possesses tremendous potential for both wireless customers and land-based. The target price should be around $5 a share.
  • Pepco (~150 shares) -- Pepco remains a blue-chip company and therefore a prized asset if I can acquire for a discount. Its revenues are stable and pays a tidy dividend every quarter.
  • Morgan Stanley (~? shares) -- I used to own stock in Wells Fargo, but pulled out when its stock languished for about a year. Of all the major banks that remain, Morgan Stanley is not my first choice. That honor would go to JP Morgan or Goldman Sachs, but I cannot afford either of their stock. Morgan Stanley at $20 per share looks to be a reasonable consolation prize.
  • Increase my holdings in AMD and Ford -- I strongly believe that you can't hedge your bets too much when capital is lacking. There's a reason why I have holdings in both companies right now, and I believe in their future. Market studies just shown that AMD has increased its market share against Intel (albeit marginally) and I get excited every time I see a Ford TransitConnect on the road.
Back in 2009 when I entered the stock market, my portfolio went up 50% in the first year (thanks mainly to AIG and Ford) and doubled by the second year. Hoping I can replicate the same feat through all this drop.

Tuesday, July 19, 2011

Bearish Financial Markets = Time to Jump In?

It's been a while since I have shared my (valued?) thoughts about the financial markets. The reason for this is better explained by the bearishness of the markets, rather than my lack of interest. After all, I have invested a considerable portion of my liquidity into certain companies. But I will also admit that it has been tough looking at the market movements over the past couple of months -- wild fluctuations with a generally downward spiral.

The writing of this post coincides with a visit yesterday to my bank, in order to make a deposit I received. My bank's tellers (very nice people) have been attempting to convince me to open a savings account from the day I opened my checking account 6 months ago. I haven't opened a savings account for three reasons: (1) pitiful interest rates, (2) possibility of buying a house, and (3) possibility of investing more into stocks. Now, the first reason remains and I do not think I will be taking up reason two unless something really good comes up. I have been muting on the third reason due to the inactivity of the financial market. Yet I realized moments ago that right now may be a good time to jump in.

The stock market (Dow Jones, Nastaq alike) have been acting crazy for most of the summer. And I do not mean "crazy" in a good way at all -- nor am I glad that a former prediction turned out to be correct. Reasons for its melancholic activity can be attributed first to the slow disintegration of the EU's monetary stability, and now because of the possibility the U.S. will default on its debt. Both are worrying developments with a very real probability of the worst becoming realized. The EU and its single currency system, in spite of looking good on paper, has resulted in all member states tying economic stability to one another. This means that a domino effect -- the economic downfall of one country, say, Italy-- can drag the entire EU bloc into economic hardship. For the U.S.'s debt default problem, the fear is that the current political standoff between Republicans and Democrats will not be resolved in time. Neither party is willing to suck it up for the good of the country.

So where does that put me? Well, I am unsure about how to invest the savings I've been accumulating for the past many months. The only certainty I have it that I need to find elsewhere to park it than my checking account -- which pays an even more pitiful interest rate than the savings one. Problem is, the highest interest rate I can get for a savings account is 2% -- which is at least 3% less than real inflation. This leaves the other viable alternative as jumping back into the stock market. Yet this triggers another question: where or who to invest in?

There are a few options:
  1. An obvious course of action is to bolster my current positions, namely in AMD and in Ford (GE grows too slow). AMD is the more attractive option at the moment: not only did its stock price jump up almost 6% today, but the fortunes of its main rival, NVIDIA, has been faltering. (Ford Motor has actually been slowly sinking lately.) But I hesitate to strengthen my hand in AMD further due to a number of concerns. The first is that the microprocessor market may be moving away from x86 architecture in the future and into ARM architecture. I would use Microsoft's demonstration of its Windows 8 OS running on ARM as the evidence to support this; furthermore, the current disparity between processing power is not an unbridgeable gap. Another is the persistent debt-to-asset ratio of AMD -- it's still too high a number.
  2. Buy Pepco Holdings. I've been eyeing this stock for almost a year now, namely because of the high dividends the company likes to pay out. It seems stable, with a steadily cashflow, and even possibility of being acquired by a bigger rival (lots of consolidation in this industry). BUT, its stock price has been holding steady, which makes it a GE-clone.
  3. Buy Nokia. If you've been reading my posts on "tech news", you'd realize that I am a big fan of Nokia. I have not been thinking of owning its plummeting stock...until I read this article today. The author sounds overly optimistic, but I understand the stated optimism. The CEO sounds like a complete idiot when making statements like this though. More research is needed but, for now, it looks promising.
  4. Buy Towers Watson. A very close friend of mine works for this consulting company, which was formed last year out of a merger between two competitors. It appears to be a solid company based on my friend's anecdotes and, if synergy means anything to you, I anticipate an upward movement of its stock price.
There you have it, the options have been documented. Hard part is to decide which one to take -- as I do not have the capital/audacity to try more than one. I am going to think about this for the next couple of days...

Thursday, May 19, 2011

LinkedIn's IPO (Update)

Having blogged about Linkedln's IPO yesterday and predicted it to be a future bust, you may think I want to put my foot where I mouth (or fingers, I guess?) with the stock's performance today. For those who do not know, the share price (NYSE: LNKD) more than doubled today to $94.25 per share at the time of this blogging. That is a staggering growth rate for any company. However, I still hold true to my predictions. Linkedln will fail in the long term --contrary to what this author from PC Magazine says (why is he writing about financial news anyway?).

To elaborate on the reasons given yesterday, the fundamental explanation is that the market does not know how to price the stock of social networking sites. There simply is no historical precedent from which to compare this to -- not even the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. And without any way to gauge prices, investors go crazy in their optimism. I believe all social network sites to be fantastically valuated when their IPOs are inevitably announced; this includes Facebook and even Groupon. If anything, we can all learn from the fates of MySpace and (just came to mind) Bebo. Both companies are what we might call "epic fails".

MySpace was arguably the first of the social networking websites. Its network was not as strong as Facebook's, but it was unique when it first appeared -- and people flocked to it. I still remember when all my friends from high school had myspace accounts (I even secretly signed up for one...to stalk a girl I fancied back then). MySpace was launched in 2002 and then rapidly grew, expanded, all the way through past its acquisition by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp for $580 million in July 2005. At its height of popularity and usage, MySpace was valued at $12 billion in 2007. Today, News Corp is attempting to sell its 5-year old acquisition for reportedly $50 to $100 million. I can bet you that Murdoch wishes he had sold it back in 2007.

Similarly, Bebo was a social networking site created in 2005 as a rival to MySpace and Facebook. AOL purchased the company in 2008 for a staggering $850 million. But it would sell the company less than 2 years later for less than 2% of its cost, at $10 million. (If this is not epic fail, then I do not know what is.) Last year I interviewed with AOL for a position and vividly remember one interviewer shaking his head when I asked about the company's recent history. But judging by this Linkedln IPO, some lessons are not learned.

Look, Linkedln's future performance may prove me 100% wrong as it becomes a powerhouse of a social networking site. Its future value may justify its now insane $9 billion valuation. But these maybes are just what they are: maybes. Odds are more likely --especially upon reflecting on the failures of MySpace and Bebo-- that it will also fail. To me, the market has failed to valuate Linkedln properly and this will result in some very hurt shareholders in the future.

I will leave this post with a question and my own (biased) answer: what makes Linkedln so special to justify its $9 billion valuation? My answer is, it has pieces to justify a price tag but nowhere near $9 billion. Not even 1% of this current valuation. The first dose of reality is, when you compare Linkedln with Facebook*, you will find that Facebook is superior in every way and with the potential to steal Linkedln's market share. The second dose of reality is that Linkedln profiles are inherently not useful -- other than job seekers, there is no incentive for anyone to maintain a Linkedln profile. If you want to find out more about your new friend, Facebook provides much more useful (and more entertaining) information. All in all, the only way for Linkedln to be worth its valuation is that Facebook's future IPO is many times over its own. Not only is that scenario unlikely -- but also Linkedln better hope Zucks doesn't infringe on its territory.

*I like to compare Linkedln to Facebook in spite of being fully aware of their differences. After all, I have profiles in both sites. But I also see their inherent similarities, as is the case with every social networking website. Facebook and Linkedln depend on their ability to network one user to another -- only Linkedln has many less users than Facebook.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

LinkedIn Failure Imminent

I heard rumors months ago that social network companies like Linkedln (and yes, Facebook too) were planning IPO (initial public offerings) to debut onto the stock market. When I heard the rumors, my first thought was that Facebook would be the first and my second thought was that I'd never buy their stock. Looks like my first thought was misplaced as...Linkedln seems to have beaten Facebook to the punch.

LinkedIn Rockets To $4 Billion Valuation, Who's Next? - NYTimes.com

Let's first review the reason for why companies want to conduct IPOs. IPOs, as its acronyms suggests, are a means to sell stock to public investors (e.g. investors on the open stock market). They are useful to companies because it helps tremendously to raise the capital needed for expansion, in addition to passing on the financial burden of failure onto investors. Another byproduct is that it makes the founders or major private shareholders extremely wealthy -- because their stake with a real-time value of 0 just exploded.

IPOs offer the advantages of allowing price fluctuations (mainly of going up) and of independence from a small number of investors. For publicly-owned companies, investor activism is generally much less likely than when shares are held by only a small number of investors. Investor activism still happens when you have pesky investors like Carl Icahn holding your stock; but these are "it is what it is" scenarios.

Back on the subject of Linkedln IPO. DealBook reports that the higher prices values the site at $4.3 billion -- a ridiculous sum of money for a business-minded social network with a much smaller user base than Facebook. I shudder to think what Facebook will be valued when it inevitably conducts its own IPO. All I can see is that it will be extremely overvalued.

Being a social network, Linkedln's current success in popularity is a mixed blessing. As soon as there comes along a superior alternative, it will quickly be displaced and its stock prices will free fall. And believe me, better alternatives will come along quickly. Nothing screams "compete against me" better than a massive valuation. But let's review some other reasons as to why Linkedln's failure is imminent (yay list of reasons!):

1. Tiny user base. "Tiny" is clearly an understatement here. The company boasts more than 100 million registered users, across more than 200 countries around the world. Clearly they have a strong foundation from which to build out. But expansion is limited due to the nature of the social network: it is business oriented. Furthermore, most businesses do not use Linkedln to advertise open positions because most businesses still operate with a dark-age mentality (internet as a last resort). One has a better chance of finding a job listing on Craigslist than on Linkedln. I do not see this changing much.

2. Competition. Facebook is clearly the elephant in the room here, and Zucks (Mark Zuckerberg) has shown his willingness to expand into other people's turfs (e.g. offering local deals to compete against Groupon). It only seems natural that Facebook would attempt to revise itself to target the business demographic. How so? I can easily seeing the company offering users the ability to establish a business profile independent of its social profile. When this happens, you can expect Linkedln's usage to half at least. Research studies have shown that people prefer the convenience of operating through one website, rather than two -- and Facebook already hosts a bunch of other services with theirs. Facebook > Linkedln. Everytime.

3. Lack of monetization opportunity. Whereas the beauty of Facebook (as described before) is that users voluntarily offer valuable information about individual preferences, the information posted by Linkedln users is not useful to marketers. Perhaps to job hunters/recruiters, but I cannot see Ford flocking to Linkedln for the opportunity to advertise its products through the site. This problem is compounded by Linkedln's small user base.

4. User interface stinks. I must admit that my negative opinion of Linkedln stems in part from my own experiences using it. From what I remember (this was over a year ago), a Linkedln profile offers no ability to customize and requires an enormous amount of user input before it becomes useful. Customization is very important to the long-term health of a social networking company -- MySpace offered too much, Facebook offers just the right amount. Even its touted ability to connect to other professionals (e.g. establish relationships) isn't very useful when the others professionals do not have a Linkedln profile. [And you better hope that recruiters from the desirable employers are savvy enough to check your Linkedln profile!] I just do not see revisions being made that could boost its user friendliness.

As with GM but with different reasons, I do not see myself ever owning Linkedln shares. Out of the proposed IPOs of social network sites, arguably Facebook is the only worthwhile company. Why not Groupon you ask? I may well be writing a post to discuss (or more likely...bash) soon but for now, I simply do not see Groupon as one with much growth potential. It's at its limit right now -- just like Linkedln.

Tuesday, May 17, 2011

US Stocks Falling Left and Right Today

It has not been a good week thus far for the stock market. Stocks across the board are falling, more precipitously today than even yesterday. This is not good news for investors like myself -- although I may not an active trader.

In terms of my own holdings, I am looking at a 2% drop in portfolio value; this is thanks to the 2% average drop in the stock prices for three I own. This doesn't come as a surprise because my two major holdings (Ford and GE) are both blue-chip stocks. Blue-chip stocks tend to fluctuate in line with market movements.

What came as a surprise is the extent of the pessimism in the stock market today. Even for Wal-Mart, who reported an increased profit, stock prices have dropped. Perhaps its stock price was negatively impacted by the performance of Hewlett Packard. So how can this be? The pessimism can be attributable to the two dark clouds hovering across the financial skies.

The first dark cloud is the news of disappointing housing market performance in the United States for the past month. This is especially acute for property builders. The housing market is an important indicator for the health of the U.S. economy because so many things depend on the availability of housing. In other words, there are extensive implications for the housing market. For example, revenues for home-improvement retailers like Lowe's and Home Depot are intrinsically tied to the housing market. Less obvious positive correlations such as car sales and general consumption (food, luxury goods) also depend on the housing market.

The second dark cloud (maybe the darker) is the current quagmire of the European debt crisis. Like it or not, national economies are all interrelated in today's world and a debt crisis in the EU will spread across to the Atlantic. Greece and Portugal are the culprits for the EU debt crisis -- and attention on their ability to repay debts leads to greater scrutiny upon its neighbors like Spain. Fear is very contagious in the financial markets.

Overall, I am predicting that the pessimistic sentiment will carry through the end of this week. But it should not persist until the following week -- investors and traders tend to be myopic and will either ignore or forget the bad news when good new arrive.

Wednesday, May 11, 2011

Thoughts as a Shareholder

As noted before in a post somewhere, I am a shareholder in a few companies at the moment. This started in the Spring of 2009, when the stock market crashed and I thought it was worth a shot in investing than earning 0.1% interest rates while holding it in the bank. This turned out to be a great call as my initial investment almost doubled by the year end -- mostly due to the strong bounce back by the market itself. Since then, there have not been much movement, but I thought I would take a few minutes to talk about my holdings and share my thoughts about them.

Until last year, I held shares in quite a number of different companies. The main purposes were twofold: speculation on any major movements, and diversification. I was fortunate to catch positive swings like AIG but the bulk of them have languished. To the best of my knowledge (I haven't checked my holdings in weeks), I currently hold shares in 3 companies.

[Ranked in order of # of shares, from most to the least.]

1. Advance Micro Devices (AMD) -- my holdings in AMD is essentially an extensive of the inner geek, always fascinated with computer gadgetry. Its stock prices hasn't moved in years, but I think it will be due for a breakthrough. As noted before, its main rival is Intel in the marketplace, a company that engages in monopolistic practices and has an R&D budget many times the size of AMD's. In other words, AMD is the David to the Intel's Goliath. I am inclined to keep holding AMD due to certain predictions:
  • AMD's rival in the discrete graphics market, NVidia, will be exiting this market entirely due to its focus on mobile ARM chips (e.g. Tegra). This remains a significant market but AMD's Radeon series has been dominating lately over NVidia's GeForce counterpart.
  • AMD's expanded clientele for its products. Since Intel's settlement with AMD, the latter has expanded the number of customers buying its computer chips and other goods. The most notable is Apple, who now only uses AMD graphics in their products. Others like Dell and Toshiba have expanded their offerings too. This is good as sales revenue increase = profit increase.
  • Fusion is the future of computing and Intel lags behind on this. AMD's Fusion products are system-on-a-chip (similar to ARM) that unifies the processor and video graphics onto a single die in production. This allows these chips to be made smaller, more video-capable, cooler, and probably cheaper. But these are different from NVidia's Tegra and other ARM (e.g. Qualcolmm's Snapdragon) in that they are designed for x86 systems (think Windows). Intel's counterpart is the Atom series which, to plainly put it, suck.
2. Ford Motor Company (F) -- I purchased Ford not knowing the brilliance of its CEO (Allan Mullaly) but because I thought the company was undervalued. At the time when I made my purchase, the other Detroit carmakers were begging the government for bailout while Ford had enough on its balance sheet to weather the storm. Today, people applaud it for not taking bailout money and it is riding on the woes of its other competitors (Toyota and Honda) through capturing market share across the board. I am very high on Ford and believe its stock has the potential to hit mid-$20 in a year. My speculations on Ford are:
  • Positive public image of the company's products will be a big plus for both the short-term and the long-term. If you want to own shares in an American carmaker, you pretty much can't go wrong with Ford. I recently met a guy who said he owns GM shares -- I found that hard to believe and had to force myself not to say anything combative.
  • Allan Mullaly is a genius. When you have a visionary CEO, how can you go wrong? Thanks to his leadership, Ford is posting record profits while carrying products that are very fuel-efficient. The latter is important as long as gas prices keep skyrocketing.
  • Growing market share gains in other parts of the world. The Ford Figo is doing great in India and there is discussion of migrating it to China too.
  • Unification of company's platforms across the world. I like how Ford brought over European models like the Ford Fiesta and Ford Transit Connect to the United States. Both cars have tremendous potential as the U.S. has seen nothing like them. As a personal quip, I would like to see Ford being over its Ford Ka line to the U.S. also. The Ka should be better priced, safer, and with better fuel efficiency than its competitors like the Mini Cooper. (I am going to try to pitch to Allan about this...haha).
3. General Electric (GE) -- I actually know very little about GE and its products/services, other than the fact that it is a global conglomerate with a failure chance of nil. I use them as the backbone of my investment portfolio (I pretty much invested all my savings into stocks at the time). I have no speculation/prediction about GE, other than the fact that it will be a stable, blue-chip stock.


Overall, I think it is a great idea to take a look at investing in the stock market right now. Interest rates still are terrible and picking up any blue-chip company (e.g. GE above) would lead to better returns. Of course, one has to do some research and determine how to best allocate the investment funds. The brokerage firm I use is entirely online -- "Tradeking", which allow for trades for only around $5 fee. If you don't want/need hand-holding in picking your investments, I would recommend them.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Microsoft + Skype = Stupidity?

This morning, Microsoft announced it would be acquiring the video communications company Skype in a behemoth of a $8.5 billion deal. While on paper it looks like a strategic acquisition, I am growing more disgusted by more details I find out about it. The acquisition makes sense -- but absolutely not for $8.5 billion...even if you're cash-rich like Microsoft.

Let's first look at the positives before the negatives. The potential of integrating Skype into Microsoft's current product offerings is enormous (in M&A terms, the potential "synergy" is immense). So in one way, Microsoft has much to benefit from the acquisition:
  1. Skype has a massive user base, in addition to a well-recognized brand name. More and more people are turning to Skype as a means of long-distance communications. Microsoft can tap into this user base, which is mostly different from its major corporate clientele.
  2. As Skype is based in Luxembourg, Microsoft can use the cash on its foreign accounts to pay for the acquisition. How is this a positive? No tax has to be paid on the deal.
  3. Microsoft's product offerings are increasingly dependent on video ecosystems. For example, Xbox Kinect and Windows Phone systems can benefit much from video integration. This can make the different between customers choosing an Android or iOS device versus a Windows Phone.
  4. Synergy cost cutting. Both Skype and Microsoft are inherently software companies. Even though Skype had a net loss last year, it would not be difficult for Microsoft to integrate the core of Skype's business into itself without major costs.
Now that the positives of the deal has been outlined, let us turn to the negatives (muhaha!).
  • Price tag of $8.5 billion. This is a ridiculous sum of money for a company that had a net loss last year, was dumped by Ebay recently after a write-down, and purchased by a group of investors for $2.75 billion. I smell a conspiracy brewing here -- is Ballmer (CEO of Microsoft) being bribed to make this deal. This is especially true in light of speculation that Skype's IPO (initial public offering) would value the company at around $2 billion dollars. Why couldn't Microsoft waited?
  • It's all potential. This is the thing investors miss out on technology companies, that they are mostly based on potential outcome and not certainty. The same thing can be said about companies like Facebook -- there is no way such a firm can be valued at more than $10 billion. Technology changes so fast and the market is so competitive that popularity can deteriorate in a heartbeat (anyone remember MySpace?). Microsoft even has a bad history of purchasing companies that eventually flop big time.
  • Even if all the potential can be realized, I highly doubt it would be worth $8.5 billion in the long term. In the short term, this is a disaster deal.
All in all, this post has been my own perceptions of the Microsoft-Skype deal announced this morning. I am really glad I do not own any Microsoft shares -- nor do I plan on purchasing any thanks to these thick-headed moves. Heck, I might even buy...Apple instead.


Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Power of Apple

[Let me preface this blog entry by admitting that I dislike products made by Apple Inc. A big part of the reason is probably because I have never owned any Apple products -- and have been proud of this streak. I was somewhat disappointed when I installed Apple iTunes on my computer for the first time...because Windows Media Player was failing me.]

Admissions of bias aside, I really admire Apple for its massively-profitable business. I am also grateful for its effect on the consumer electronics market, on both the software and the hardware fronts. This is especially true in the recent years. Cases in point: the iPhone and the iPad.

The former (iPhone) revolutionized the cell phones market -- widely perceived as the biggest "game changer" since the Motorola Razr phone of the early 2000s. Apple had numerous critics before the release of the iPhone and faced paranoia from its shareholders that the company was shifting away from its core business (in computers and software). Skeptics questioned whether Apple, a company with no prior experience in the cell phone market, could be successful in a very competitive industry. Moreover, it was about to compete with a completely new design of a cell phone: a multi-purpose device that was accessed primarily via the human touch (aka touchscreen). Cell phones until then had mostly been flip phones with tiny screens and limited to making and receiving phone calls.

The latter (iPad) received even more skepticism (read: ridicule), as just an upscaled version of the iPod Touch. Many people, me included, argued that there was no market for such a product. Even if there was a market, sales of the iPad would cannibalize those of the iPod Touch. In other words, it seemed like a losing preposition for Apple Inc. to go ahead and market this product.

Fast forward each described product a couple of years and we see that Apple not only proved its skeptics wrong, but has been enormously profitable. It has surpassed its rival Microsoft in market capitalization and still showing impressive growth. Reviewing Steve Jobs' leadership over the past decade, one can only be envious of Apple Inc. and its remarkable turnaround. A feel-good story for everyone but its competitors. The iPhone remains the hottest cell phone around, not due to its specifications but on the strength of its applications store (App Store) and its ease-of-use to most individuals. As for the iPad, it has proved to produce a similar effect on the market as its smaller brother. Namely, it has created a new market for tablet products and forced competitors to catchup its lead. There was no perceived market for the iPad because one could not anticipate how it would be used by businesses, consumers, schools, etc.

So what makes Apple so successful? It doesn't take a rocket scientist to point to Steve Jobs as the answer. Jobs has been visionary in his leadership of the company, a prophet able to foresee what products consumers want and able to profit off that future vision. But I applaud Jobs not for his visions -- because other CEOs in the past have been able to have streaks of developing wildly popular products. Instead, I applaud his solidarity and strong sense of self-identity to see through his convictions. He appears to be above the typical CEO: always worried about his/her job security and how to best increase shareholder value. Jobs seems to be separate to accomplish the latter without the former preoccupation. Critics may laugh at his standard attire of turtleneck shirt, jeans, and New Balance sneakers but cannot deny his success.

But I'd argue that Jobs is not central to Apple's success (he is instrumental in building this though). The keystone to Apple's success is brand equity, one unparalleled in the corporate world. Apple's brand recognition is superior to any of its competitors -- not even Google, Sony, and Coca-Cola can compete against it. How do I know this? The fanaticism of Apple consumers can be laughed off as the pinnacle of materialism but, oh boy, would I give anything to have that type of brand loyalty. These "Apple fans" are often loyal to the fault (to themselves, not to the company). They consider any products made by Apple as the must-have item and trust completely in its superiority. Therein lies the key: Apple products are often not the most advanced nor the most consumer-friendly (and they are downright expensive), but consumers trust in the quality of Apple's products and in their value without a second thought. The company's marketing may be polarizing ("I'm a Mac and I'm a PC", anyone?) but it is extremely effective at distinguishing Apple from its competitors. The marketing also serves to build upon this perception that Apple product-owners are trendy and always have the coolest electronics.

From a behavioral economics perspective, Apple is successful because it has no competitors for its products. There may be substitutes such as Windows and the Motorola Xoom, but these are imperfect substitutes at best. Apple builds its own software and hardware, both of which cannot be licensed. To the consumer, the lack of substitutes means they have nothing to compare Apple products to and thus unable to judge their prices nor their capabilities effectively. This in economics jargon, is known as "price anchoring". Because consumers do not have price anchors with which to compare, they are at the initiative of Apple to dictate the value and the capabilities of its products. For example, $500 is an enormous cost for the iPad: a tablet without multitasking capabilities nor the ability for office productivity. One can purchase a netbook for half the cost of an iPad. The iPad is largely used to play games, surf the internet, and watch movies -- all of which a netbook can do. But the iPad offers some differences from a netbook (e.g. touchscreen) -- differences significant enough to leave consumers at a loss about how to perceive its value. It should be worth about the price of a netbook but, given the uncertainty, it makes it easy for Apple to double the price without losing the double amount of potential customers. One can even argue that Apple wants to price its products relatively high due to the association with the "premium quality".

Aside from Steve Jobs and brand equity, Apple also has other things that most people may not consider. I read an article recently describing the effectiveness of customer service at Apple Stores, and a perceived generosity of Apple's protection plans. Apple customer helpers are apparently very willing to help anyone in need with a single caveat --as long as the product in question is an Apple product. When and where the product was purchased does not matter. The tenaciousness (read: helpfulness) of the helpers also creates a positive impression for customers. (I recall the article's example of a photographer coming to the store to complain about his MacBook's deficiencies and walking out very happy with a newer model...that he just purchased himself). So, Apple's customer service is often underrated. Another underrated area is Apple's control over its distribution channels and the ability to lock up inventory and suppliers. Its tight control over the suppliers is indicated by the rare leaks about its upcoming products and the lack of shortages over its products. Both of these effects have additional ramifications (of course).

Since the introduction of the iPod, Apple has gravitated away from a focus on devices with linear capabilities and into devices considered to be "jack-of-all trades, master of none". The beauty lies in the responsiveness of the populace to the latter. It seems people do not care much for the quality of a capability but their quantity. Makes sense in a way: would you rather carry three gadgets with specialized functions, or a single device that can do all three but maybe not as well? I think that unless you are an expert photographer or music professional (what is the probability? About one percent?), then you'd take the latter in a heartbeat. Slap on the that Apple brand and it's a OMGWTFBBQ moment for many.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Value Investing

In the little spare time I have, I have recently begun reading "The Big Short" by renowned author Michael Lewis. The book details the background of the financial crisis of 2008-2009, including little known facts such as the players involved and the messed up nature of the motives. Lewis provided as good of a explanation as can be found on what sub-prime mortgages and credit-default swap are -- and how it was manipulated by major financial corporations for a gain. I am pretty appalled at the fact that intelligent people would be so carried away by the greed.

One character from the book (thus far) stands out: Mike Burry. I believe the guy is still around -- he is a self-professed value investor who foresaw the crash of the housing market and bet heavily against it through his hedge fund Scion Capital. Prior to betting on credit-default swaps, Burry had consistently beat the S&P500 index through "value investing".

Value investing is picking particular stocks/securities that are seemingly undervalued by the market -- in other words, what Warren Buffett does. The key is being able to show great patience and not just look for short-term gains. The investor has to analyze the cash flow projections of companies and understand not only its product line, but also the industry as well.

I discuss value investing because it is pretty much what I am attempting to do -- only I am not so patient sometimes. I started buying stocks in May 2009, when the stock market was slowly recovering from its bottoming out two months prior. I essentially put all my equity into a number of companies:
  • Nvidia, Citigroup, Ford, GE
A couple of months in, I decided to sell Nvidia and Citigroup and instead acquire some of AIG, some of Wells Fargo, and some of AMD. The reasoning are as follows:
  • Selling Nvidia -- I originally bought the shares on the hype of its Tegra chips, which promised to revolutionize computing. The only problem at the time was, these chips were not due to be on the market for at least a couple of years. Nvidia stock actually doubled over the past couple of months. But at the time, it showed minimal changes and looked like they would be quashed by...
  • ...Buying AMD -- I am a geek and so like to read news about computing technologies. I was determined to hold onto a tech stock and AMD looked good at the time. Sure they were in debt and were dwarfed by Intel in the market, but I think they had great potential.
  • Buying AIG -- purchased these shares purely on the fact that its price had jumped 2-fold that day. I realized that it (acquired for $20/share) had potential to go even higher, especially since it was worth more than $600 per share not two years earlier.
  • Selling Citigroup -- pretty much a trade for Wells Fargo stocks. Wells Fargo looked better since it had much lower debt.
  • Buying Wells Fargo -- strictly as a means of diversification. Bank stocks were performing great back then and I had high hopes they would continue. Wells Fargo had also just absorbed my bank, Wachovia. Unfortunately, this stock languished for about a year and I ended up liquidating it for little profit.
I think it was back in November 2009 when I made my second adjustment or, as-you-will, series of trades. I ended up selling AMD for its lack of performance; sold a portion of AIG when it peaked around $60. I believe my holdings at the time were: AIG, GE, F, Wells, and AMD. These stocks I would hold until about a year later.

Last October, I made my third adjustment that essentially diversified my holdings even more. Ended up selling AMD, Wells, AIG, and a minor portion of GE in favor of buying AOL, AXP:
  • Buying AOL -- I had been trying to get a job with AOL the months prior and in the process learned a substantial amount about the company. It looked like it was bouncing back and was a major player in the online advertising market. Google may the the king of search, but AOL controlled a significance market share of display advertising through its subsidiary Advertising.com. Also, there were rumors the company would be acquiring Yahoo!. I ended up liquidating these shares for a minor loss for the lack of performance and the passing of the acquisition rumors.
  • Buying AXP -- its price had dropped significantly that day on news of an antitrust ruling against the company, Visa, and Mastercard. It had solid cashflow, paid okay dividends, and thus seemed undervalued. This stock performed okay but not great.
About two months later (November 2010?) I ended up consolidating my positions by selling off everything except for GE and Ford. I used the proceeds generated to acquire more Ford and reacquiring AMD. The former because it looked promising in the long run (and a friend shared similar thoughts) and the latter due to its release of the Fusion chips. We shall see.

One of my struggles has been the lack of capital, without which I cannot create economies of scale. Even with the low transaction cost of $5, it is hard to generate any substantial gains/profits without relying exclusively on major stock price increases. The latter is difficult to comeby and more difficult to identify (the stocks about to explode). In other words, I could generate a good profit if able to purchase 2000 shares of a company instead of 200...