Oh man I really haven't posted since February of this year?? Now I'm super duper bummed out.....not. It's not that I don't value you few readers out there, but it seems like this year has been flying by at breakneck speed. Without further adieu though, I'll grace you with my newest entry below.
I've been traveling a lot this year. And when I mean "a lot", I do really mean it's been a lot lot of traveling. Think of somewhere internationally at least once every 2 months. Strictly for fun and no work. So during my last trip to the Southern Hemisphere, I had a new thought about the modern life and how it can be divided into distinct phases. Thus the title of this blog post.
The so-called "Phases of Life" are inherently subjective and unique to each individual. Yet at the same time, it's a useful tool to categorize individuals since there's no phenotype-defining or mathematically-formulaic features like hair color, race, and age. For example, I could be in the same phase of life as someone much older, of a completely different ethnicity, background or even gender. It's probably easier to understand if I first define what these phases could look like.
Phase 1 - Post-College, First Job, Master's degree
Rather than start all the way from childhood, I'll define my Phase 1 as my post-college self. Coincidentally it was that person who started this blog. This version of me was quite unsure of himself, but excited at being finally independent and having moved to a new city. I remember these years as thrilling yet uncertain - thrilling because of all the potential to be and do, but uncertain due to inexperience and fear of failure.
Phase 2 - Career Progression, Homeownership, Wanderlust
In my mind, there was a clear delineation between the first and second phases due to my job change. But it was much more than a job change. Over a span of 3 months, not only did I change jobs and make more money, but I also became a homeowner. I thought about back then how that would change my mindset....and it did happen. This was followed by a totally unplanned period of wanderlust, of prolific traveling across the world. It was addicting, enthralling, but also introduced a sense of nomadic living and unable to live a "normal/typical" city life. Therefore my goal is to make this the last year of this.
Phase 3 - Marriage, Houseownership, Dogownership, Entrepreneurial Success
This is the phase on the horizon and what a massive phase it is. I'm not sure how long it'll span (3-4 years) but certainly a lot of things packed in here. In contrast to the previous phases of singlehood, this one is punctuated by becoming married in addition to buying an actual house. I've always wanted to have a dog so why not lump it into this phase too? And last but not least, this is likely the last phase I'll have to really strive to be an entrepreneur so it's time to make it or break it.
Phase 4 - Fatherhood, Financial Independence, ???
The post-future phase if you will, since it's the one after the next one. I can only imagine what it'll look like, though assuming it'll be punctuated by another major life event: becoming a father. That'll certainly profoundly change my life. Hopefully I'll be financially independent by the time that happens?
So as you can see above, these are my interpretations of my own life and where I am currently - also where I'm headed. What about yours?
Showing posts with label rant. Show all posts
Showing posts with label rant. Show all posts
Monday, October 3, 2016
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Thoughts on US Presidential Race for 2016
Growing up, I've always been disinterested in politics and the selection process of American presidents. Maybe it was a byproduct of not being able to vote until the last election (2012). Or a general apathy to a world that I did not understand well and to which I had even lesser influence. Today when I'm asked about my political beliefs, my default answer is always between "I don't really follow it to have an opinion" to "I'd say I'm a moderate who leans Republican only on fiscal policy". This all being said, I've been following up this election cycle with marginally more interest and consequently have formed an opinion of my own.
I feel that despite all the posturing and talk/debates from all candidates, the nominees for each party at this point are clear: Hilary Clinton for the Democrats, and Marc Rubio for the Republicans. This may change in case of an unexpected turn of events but should not and it makes sense.
For the Democrats, Hilary, for all her faults and damaged reputation, remains the household name and the most viable of the 3 major candidates. Bernie Sanders is too extreme in his views and Martin O'Malley is either too discrete or too much of a bozo (e.g. a talking head). This is not to say that she'll win the general election at all - in fact, I'd be willing to bet that she'll lose. As I'll get to in a bit, the public has shown an anti-establishment preference in its favoring of Donald Trump and Ben Carson on the Republican side; this runs directly counter to what Hilary stands for, which is a return of the Clinton name and its former policies. Hilary is simply the best candidate from the Democratic contenders, period.
For the Republicans, Rubio makes sense for his mixture of inexperience, age, and potential to bring in the highly-touted Hispanic vote. I understand that Donald Trump and Ben Carson are currently the front-runners but the American people are not stupid to vote for a candidate devoid of any political experience. As much as I dislike politics, it's like a game that you cannot refuse to play as a President - lest the end result be Obama's current situation of a deadlock with a legislative arm (e.g. Congress) refusing to support his ideas and initiatives. Political experience is a major plus, though arguably too much experience is a minus; likewise idealism and fresh spirit are great to have, but too much freshness leads to...green and possibility of ill-advised undertakings. Therefore Trump and Carson would be disasters if they ultimately win the nomination, and I trust that the public recognizes this and will vote accordingly.
At the other end of the spectrum, the other candidates are likewise inexperience (Carly Fiorina), damaging reputation (Chris Christie, Jeb Bush), or general lack of credibility (Rand Paul, Ted Cruz). I know there are others in the field but let's be honest, they should've dropped out by now. To summarize quickly my thoughts on these:
- Carl Fiorina's experience is staked in her tenure as CEO of HP, which was in fact a disaster for the company. She presided a period of accelerated decline for HP and consequently, this is in fact negative experience.
- Chris Christie's reputation for frankness is marred by his questionable role in "bridgegate" and his image in general. Again let's be honest, we vote for candidates who look presidential and this man needs to seriously lose some weight to look the type. The irony is that he may in fact be representative of American obesity but that's something neither the American public nor the rest of the world wants to see.
- Jeb Bush is a Bush and has shown little in terms of initiative. Unfortunately for him, he's running in a crowded field and on a party base tired of establishment players.
- Rand Paul is too much of a flipflopper and this will be exposed if he ends up with the nomination. This is unfortunate as I liked his father (Ron Paul) a lot but whereas dad was consistent, the apple seems to have fallen far from the tree. I like his stance against NSA and government spying on its citizens but in general too wishy-washy as a candidate.
- Ted Cruz is similar to Martin O'Malley and seems to be a bozo. I question his stance against net-neutrality, which hints at some bedroom behavior with the major corporations.
I feel that despite all the posturing and talk/debates from all candidates, the nominees for each party at this point are clear: Hilary Clinton for the Democrats, and Marc Rubio for the Republicans. This may change in case of an unexpected turn of events but should not and it makes sense.
For the Democrats, Hilary, for all her faults and damaged reputation, remains the household name and the most viable of the 3 major candidates. Bernie Sanders is too extreme in his views and Martin O'Malley is either too discrete or too much of a bozo (e.g. a talking head). This is not to say that she'll win the general election at all - in fact, I'd be willing to bet that she'll lose. As I'll get to in a bit, the public has shown an anti-establishment preference in its favoring of Donald Trump and Ben Carson on the Republican side; this runs directly counter to what Hilary stands for, which is a return of the Clinton name and its former policies. Hilary is simply the best candidate from the Democratic contenders, period.
For the Republicans, Rubio makes sense for his mixture of inexperience, age, and potential to bring in the highly-touted Hispanic vote. I understand that Donald Trump and Ben Carson are currently the front-runners but the American people are not stupid to vote for a candidate devoid of any political experience. As much as I dislike politics, it's like a game that you cannot refuse to play as a President - lest the end result be Obama's current situation of a deadlock with a legislative arm (e.g. Congress) refusing to support his ideas and initiatives. Political experience is a major plus, though arguably too much experience is a minus; likewise idealism and fresh spirit are great to have, but too much freshness leads to...green and possibility of ill-advised undertakings. Therefore Trump and Carson would be disasters if they ultimately win the nomination, and I trust that the public recognizes this and will vote accordingly.
At the other end of the spectrum, the other candidates are likewise inexperience (Carly Fiorina), damaging reputation (Chris Christie, Jeb Bush), or general lack of credibility (Rand Paul, Ted Cruz). I know there are others in the field but let's be honest, they should've dropped out by now. To summarize quickly my thoughts on these:
- Carl Fiorina's experience is staked in her tenure as CEO of HP, which was in fact a disaster for the company. She presided a period of accelerated decline for HP and consequently, this is in fact negative experience.
- Chris Christie's reputation for frankness is marred by his questionable role in "bridgegate" and his image in general. Again let's be honest, we vote for candidates who look presidential and this man needs to seriously lose some weight to look the type. The irony is that he may in fact be representative of American obesity but that's something neither the American public nor the rest of the world wants to see.
- Jeb Bush is a Bush and has shown little in terms of initiative. Unfortunately for him, he's running in a crowded field and on a party base tired of establishment players.
- Rand Paul is too much of a flipflopper and this will be exposed if he ends up with the nomination. This is unfortunate as I liked his father (Ron Paul) a lot but whereas dad was consistent, the apple seems to have fallen far from the tree. I like his stance against NSA and government spying on its citizens but in general too wishy-washy as a candidate.
- Ted Cruz is similar to Martin O'Malley and seems to be a bozo. I question his stance against net-neutrality, which hints at some bedroom behavior with the major corporations.
Tuesday, November 25, 2014
Thoughts on Michael Brown Shooting and Black Suffrage
Allow me to begin this post by noting that I'm not black/African-American. Instead, I'm an Asian-American who immigrated to this country more than 10 years ago. If my ethnicity automatically disqualifies me from commenting on the Michael Brown shooting event - because I'm not black and therefore cannot comprehend the underlying issues - then so be it. I understand that there are aspects of culture and history of blacks that I may never fully grasp. But I'm going to share my thoughts anyway, as a citizen of America, a bystander, and a part of today's American society.
In short, I agree with the decision by the Ferguson grand jury to not indict Darren Wilson, the police officer who shot Michael Brown in late August 2014. That's not to say that I believe Wilson is completely innocent as there are certainly steps he could've taken to mitigate the confrontation - e.g. drawing his handgun perhaps a bit prematurely, which probably exacerbated Brown's reaction. Yet reading over the witness testimonies and information presented to the grand jury, the simple fact of the matter is that Brown not only refused an officer's orders but outright attacked him maliciously and violently. When a police officer orders you to do something, you comply regardless of the order because he or she is a representative of the rule of law. Any wrongdoing in the order can be argued afterwards. The punishment (death) doesn't befit the crime in this case, but it's a strictly a matter of right vs. wrong. It's right to follow a police officer's orders and wrong to attack a police officer.
In other words, if you're stupid enough to attack an armed police officer, then you have to be mindful of the possible consequences of your own ignorance and stupidity. This is irregardless of the earlier reported burglary at a nearby convenience store, which was allegedly carried out by Brown. You just don't attack someone and not expect retaliation. However, this highlights the underlying problem for a small subset of the larger black community/population: lack of respect for the rule of law.
Rule of law is created to apply for everyone in American society, regardless of your wealth, family background, job, etc. It's the basic fabric of this country and is what makes us the beacon of democracy and freedom to the rest of the world. It sounds cliched but it's the simple truth. There is no preferential treatment or circumvention of the law - not even for the President of the United States. As the U.S. Constitution attests to, we are all under the law and no one is above it. Yet there appears to be a perception within a subset of the black community that the rule of law is rigged against them, and therefore they should fight against it. Unfortunately, this sentiment is so pervasive that one hears oftentimes in songs and stories. Song lyrics like "f*** the police" are not uncommon and one is regarded as "cool" to have defied the police or committed any crime. It's a minor but disturbing nonetheless - and perhaps explains Brown's disposition when first ordered by Wilson to walk on the sidewalk instead of the road. Brown may have been offended at being given orders, especially by a police officer and accompanied by a friend, may have wanted to show off his toughness. The fact of the matter is that he acted defiantly and took steps to express his defiance.
Going a bit further, another underlying issue is the victim mentality of the black community. And this may not be limited to a small subset of the overall population. The victim mentality is commonly understood as derived from the slavery of blacks during the early American history. Slavery oppressed blacks at the time, and its effects still reverberate in today's society. In other words, black people were screwed as slaves and continue to be screwed because they were manipulated and taken advantage throughout the process of nation building. The result is a feeling that society is indebted to blacks and should treat them as preferred citizens of this country. Arguably the best example of this is repeated calls for slavery separations - payments to current blacks for the ills of the past. And herein lies the real shame and the very reason why blacks have not moved forward much since the days of Martin Luther King Jr.
Self-victimization undermines a sense of accountability for one's actions and ability to influence one's destiny. The perception is that society is unfair and inherently skewed to keeping black people down. The end result is predictable: if you believe the house rules are unfair, then how can you rise up through the inequality? A sense of possibility is greatly diminished and, along with that, the drive to achieve great and wonderful things in life. Furthermore, the darker side of this perception is anger towards the perceived status quo. Fighting back against the inequality would translate to lack of respect for the rule of law and, worse, acting out against the personification of it: police officers. Personally, I this is a damning sentiment and until blacks move beyond disrespecting current laws and rules in place, unfortunate incidents such as Michael Brown shootings will happen. There will be another Trayvon Martin and Michael Brown in the near future.
The greater truth is that blacks are not alone in having been manipulated and used to the building of America. Many differences races and peoples have been too, such as the Irish immigrants in the factories of the Industrial Revolution and the Native Americans whose lands were confiscated and forcibly removed from their homes. The history of sacrifice is shared amongst all Americans and cannot be claimed by a single race or people. But more importantly, the key is moving beyond the tainted past and together building a better future. Or maybe taking the best of the past as constructive lessons to impart to future generations. If one believes the law is unfair and biased, then the action would be to engage the legal mechanisms to make the appropriate amendments. This means voting for the right officials into positions of power who can enact on the changes. Not through aggression towards society at large such as attacking police officers. Life is what you make of it - making the most out of opportunities around you.
Friday, October 10, 2014
Predictions for AMD
AMD stock prices have fallen roughly 20% combined in the past couple of days, precipitated by the changing of guard in its top leadership. Lisa Su has replaced Rory Read as the new CEO of AMD, becoming the first female top executive in the company. The general sentiment on Wall Street appears to favor Lisa Su, but concerned about the timing of the announcement. To say the least, the change is both unexpected and abrupt, belied by the company's Q3 earnings release next Wednesday (10/15).
Unfortunately for me, I made a significant purchase of AMD stock a couple of days ago (which means I'm effectively down 20% on my new investment). This also means that had I had this foresight, then I would have been able to acquire 20% more AMD stock had I waited 2 days. Sometimes the market gets you. Good thing I'm a value investor...
To keep this post short, I'll just share my immediate thoughts about the recent events for AMD:
- I remain bullish on the company and its future outlook. While the past couple of years have been tough, with the company squeezed between a rock (Intel) and a hard place (Nvidia), portfolio diversification of AMD's product lines has started paying dividends. Its new initiative in ARM chips and monopoly over current generation consoles (e.g. Xbox One PS4, Wii U) will at very least guarantee steady income for the next 5 years. That being said...
- ...the stock will fall some more before next week is over. I'm predicting a weaker than expected revenue growth for its Q3 earnings, which I suspect is the reason Rory Read was ousted so suddenly and unexpectedly. Expectation is for the stock to fall to around $2.20 before it climbs back up.
- Lenovo will begin offering much more products with AMD chipsets than previously. Despite the announcement yesterday of Lenovo Yoga 3 Pro series, which marks the first use of Intel's newest Core M line of processors, I firmly believe that new CEO Lisa Su's background as a former executive in Lenovo will influence her old company to adopt more AMD chipsets. Everyone may be praising her technical and industry background, the elephant in the room is that Lenovo is currently world's #1 computer manufacturer. Intel may boast faster chips but 90% of Lenovo's user base will neither notice the speed difference, nor particularly care if they're given an AMD-based laptop instead. AMD's chips are cheaper than Intel's so there's that to seal this deal.
Taking the 3 points above together, it seems clear to me that AMD is a severely undervalued stock at the moment and has incredible upside in the next couple of years. It has a promising product roadmap ahead that targets industries that its direct competitors in Nvidia and Intel have largely ignored. With both Nvidia and Intel firmly entrenched (and struggling) to battle it out in the ARM market with the likes of Qualcomm and MediaTrek, this is a chance for AMD to buckle down and get ahead. Needless to say, I'll be looking to further increasing my AMD stake next week.
Wednesday, April 16, 2014
Personal Life Maxims
I've been pondering on this for a while and figured I'd finally jot down (and share) on the "maxims" I strive to live by. Sometimes I fall short but try to live by the following as much as possible. In my opinion, "maxims" are the foundations or a set of rules one aspires to uphold all the time and in every situation.
In no particular order:
1. "Dance with the one who brought you."
Keyword - loyalty
This is an expression I read in Randy Pausch's famous "Last Lecture" book, and speaks beyond just the phenomenon of attending a dance (e.g. prom, gala, etc.) with a partner. It should be applied to all areas of life, including work relations, friends, and even family. While it may be tempting to jump ship for whatever benefits a new opportunity holds, it means more to stay the course and standby the people who gave you the initial opportunity. Not only is it about loyalty, but also being thankful to those who helped you in the past.
A personal example happened last year, shortly after I started work as a federal employee. Deloitte made me a generous offer that I ultimately declined. The backstory is they had tried to recruit me months prior but couldn't make an offer due to hiring freeze at the time. Overall it was an agonizing decision because it seemed like a perfect fit for my background in finance/economics but also mixed in IT project management. I pondered, spoke to my boss, and in the end decided to stay the course. The main reason was understanding the effort my boss had put it to bring me onboard, and his plans to help me develop. That's not to say I will forever remain in this position, but for now that is the case.
2. "I have no special talent; I'm only passionately curious about everything."
Keyword - humility
This is a quotation from Albert Einstein, who I presume was speaking about the perception that he was a supremely talented and a natural-born genius. The lesson to learn here is that opportunities come and go, oftentimes completely independent of our actions or abilities. Again, it's about the people who helped us get somewhere and perhaps of a higher power that granted us the opportunity. It's not about self-deprecation but acknowledging that we're not omnipotent and should never be fully comfortable with where we are. This should especially translate to our interactions with those around us, regardless of their position compared to our own. We're in this together.
My personal example is constantly reminding myself that despite of my position as a manager, I'm not much better than anyone else from the streets. I'm where I am and do what I do because of my team, boss, organization, friends, family, and God. This helps keeps things in perspective.
3. "Count your blessings."
Keyword - thankfulness
As a so-called "go-getter", I find myself sometimes unhappy because something didn't happen or work out that would have improved my life considerably or even marginally. In my striving towards things like career development and romantic relationships, I take the things and people I have for granted. I suspect I'm not the only one who does this, but it's a flawed person trait I try to right. It's almost an incessant questioning of what we lack that, if held unchecked, can cause us to be depressed when we ought to be experiencing the complete opposite.
I don't have a concrete example to share, other than being mindful of things like how I have gainful employment, live in a war-free zone, and am essentially the master of my own destiny. I'm not even hindered by any allergies or physical abnormalities. Most of the world can't even come close to that. In the end it's about finding a balance between striving towards goals yet being cognizant of the present situation, being grateful for the countless good things we have.
4. "If you have the power to make a difference, you should put it to good use."
Keyword - generosity
I like to combine this one with another lesson from Randy Pausch's book, called "enabling the dreams of others." This expression itself comes from an anime show I used to watch long ago, about young pilot trying to protect his friends during a massive war. While this sounds like the common phrase of "paying it forward" and is generally in the same spirit, in my opinion it's bigger picture. Making a difference isn't easy and the hardest part is recognizing those opportunities to make an impact, for someone or a specific cause. Oftentimes it involves going out of your way for someone else, group of people, or organization, to help them achieve their dream.
In many ways, the lesson is being unselfish and recognizing that we are altogether instead of living in our own paneled homes. So why shouldn't we help out our fellow man, woman, or child? There's again an undertone of being grateful for what we have and wanting to share our perceived successes. Another take on this is that I owe it to not myself but to others to take action, to fight off the inclination to be apathetic and defer to someone else to do something greater. We each have more power to make a difference than we first think.
5. "Cherish your loved ones."
Keyword - priority
This one is a no-brainer but it's funny how quickly we can forget about this and instead be devoted to other things like our hobbies and careers. Workaholic-ism is an openly admired trait in our society, especially for private companies where there is no extraneous benefits like overtime. But when we take a step back and think about it, no one wishes they had worked more in their deathbeds. We'd always wish that we had more time to spend with our families, friends, and other loved ones (e.g. pets). In a way, it's recognizing and remembering the fragility of life and how we may live differently if we knew today was our last. I suspect our priorities would change dramatically shift if that was the case.
6. "Understand your Detroit and accepting that you can't go."
Keyword - peace
This maxim derives from a book by Jack Welch I read and comes from the example of a GE employee that was offered a terrific position by another company, that happened to be located in Detroit rather than the city he was working in. The decision should have been a no-brainer except for the fact that the employee had a family to take care of, whom were well planted in their existing location. In the end, he chose not to take the position. The lesson is that many opportunities will come up throughout our lives, sometimes amazing opportunities that we eventually have to turn down for one reason or another. In the example given, it was family but could be almost anything. The import thing is to accept the reasons why we can't take up those opportunities and thus be willing to let them go.
This is different from Maxim #1 because the emphasis isn't so much on loyalty as on circumstances and the potential adverse impact of our actions on others around us. Ultimately it's about being at peace with our decisions and moving on, rather than frequently looking back and wondering the "what could've been". Life is too short to be burdened down with regret and if you're optimistic, then you'll realize that other amazing opportunities will come along. Maybe not today but probably tomorrow. One door closing now doesn't mean it won't be open again in the future, or another door be opened for you.
7. "Be so good they can't ignore you."
Keyword - dedication
This is word-for-word the title of a book by Cal Newport, who preached his belief there's an overglorification in our society today on pursuing our so-called passions. He argues instead that it should be the other way around: passion for our work comes second to our skills; the more we practice our skills, the more enjoyment we get from doing our work and the benefits of career progress (e.g. salary increase, position growth) follow. I found the book to be incredibly well-written and influential to challenging my former ideas about work. Aside from dedication, the other lesson here is about commitment to a specific craft and the hidden benefits that would come from that.
In this sense, this maxim applies to a lot of other areas of life and not just about careers. The obvious implication is in personal relationships, about being committed to a certain friendship, familial relations, or a special someone. This is especially true when we're first starting out on the last one. As a personal example, I've been dipping into the world of online dating the past few months and was immediately hit by the sheer number of potential partners. At first I approach each date purposely, but eventually took a more casual approach. This is something I saw in some of the dates I saw too, particularly those who admitted they had a lot of online dates. Slowly I changed and came into each date with a diminished sense of commitment, a little more impatient and more ready to jump ship at the first sign of incompatibility. The results spoke for themselves (e.g. nothing). Having realized this, I'm now trying to approach one in a more committed manner and try harder...if there aren't any potential dealbreakers.
In no particular order:
1. "Dance with the one who brought you."
Keyword - loyalty
A personal example happened last year, shortly after I started work as a federal employee. Deloitte made me a generous offer that I ultimately declined. The backstory is they had tried to recruit me months prior but couldn't make an offer due to hiring freeze at the time. Overall it was an agonizing decision because it seemed like a perfect fit for my background in finance/economics but also mixed in IT project management. I pondered, spoke to my boss, and in the end decided to stay the course. The main reason was understanding the effort my boss had put it to bring me onboard, and his plans to help me develop. That's not to say I will forever remain in this position, but for now that is the case.
2. "I have no special talent; I'm only passionately curious about everything."
Keyword - humility
This is a quotation from Albert Einstein, who I presume was speaking about the perception that he was a supremely talented and a natural-born genius. The lesson to learn here is that opportunities come and go, oftentimes completely independent of our actions or abilities. Again, it's about the people who helped us get somewhere and perhaps of a higher power that granted us the opportunity. It's not about self-deprecation but acknowledging that we're not omnipotent and should never be fully comfortable with where we are. This should especially translate to our interactions with those around us, regardless of their position compared to our own. We're in this together.
My personal example is constantly reminding myself that despite of my position as a manager, I'm not much better than anyone else from the streets. I'm where I am and do what I do because of my team, boss, organization, friends, family, and God. This helps keeps things in perspective.
3. "Count your blessings."
Keyword - thankfulness
As a so-called "go-getter", I find myself sometimes unhappy because something didn't happen or work out that would have improved my life considerably or even marginally. In my striving towards things like career development and romantic relationships, I take the things and people I have for granted. I suspect I'm not the only one who does this, but it's a flawed person trait I try to right. It's almost an incessant questioning of what we lack that, if held unchecked, can cause us to be depressed when we ought to be experiencing the complete opposite.
I don't have a concrete example to share, other than being mindful of things like how I have gainful employment, live in a war-free zone, and am essentially the master of my own destiny. I'm not even hindered by any allergies or physical abnormalities. Most of the world can't even come close to that. In the end it's about finding a balance between striving towards goals yet being cognizant of the present situation, being grateful for the countless good things we have.
4. "If you have the power to make a difference, you should put it to good use."
Keyword - generosity
I like to combine this one with another lesson from Randy Pausch's book, called "enabling the dreams of others." This expression itself comes from an anime show I used to watch long ago, about young pilot trying to protect his friends during a massive war. While this sounds like the common phrase of "paying it forward" and is generally in the same spirit, in my opinion it's bigger picture. Making a difference isn't easy and the hardest part is recognizing those opportunities to make an impact, for someone or a specific cause. Oftentimes it involves going out of your way for someone else, group of people, or organization, to help them achieve their dream.
In many ways, the lesson is being unselfish and recognizing that we are altogether instead of living in our own paneled homes. So why shouldn't we help out our fellow man, woman, or child? There's again an undertone of being grateful for what we have and wanting to share our perceived successes. Another take on this is that I owe it to not myself but to others to take action, to fight off the inclination to be apathetic and defer to someone else to do something greater. We each have more power to make a difference than we first think.
5. "Cherish your loved ones."
Keyword - priority
This one is a no-brainer but it's funny how quickly we can forget about this and instead be devoted to other things like our hobbies and careers. Workaholic-ism is an openly admired trait in our society, especially for private companies where there is no extraneous benefits like overtime. But when we take a step back and think about it, no one wishes they had worked more in their deathbeds. We'd always wish that we had more time to spend with our families, friends, and other loved ones (e.g. pets). In a way, it's recognizing and remembering the fragility of life and how we may live differently if we knew today was our last. I suspect our priorities would change dramatically shift if that was the case.
6. "Understand your Detroit and accepting that you can't go."
Keyword - peace
This maxim derives from a book by Jack Welch I read and comes from the example of a GE employee that was offered a terrific position by another company, that happened to be located in Detroit rather than the city he was working in. The decision should have been a no-brainer except for the fact that the employee had a family to take care of, whom were well planted in their existing location. In the end, he chose not to take the position. The lesson is that many opportunities will come up throughout our lives, sometimes amazing opportunities that we eventually have to turn down for one reason or another. In the example given, it was family but could be almost anything. The import thing is to accept the reasons why we can't take up those opportunities and thus be willing to let them go.
This is different from Maxim #1 because the emphasis isn't so much on loyalty as on circumstances and the potential adverse impact of our actions on others around us. Ultimately it's about being at peace with our decisions and moving on, rather than frequently looking back and wondering the "what could've been". Life is too short to be burdened down with regret and if you're optimistic, then you'll realize that other amazing opportunities will come along. Maybe not today but probably tomorrow. One door closing now doesn't mean it won't be open again in the future, or another door be opened for you.
7. "Be so good they can't ignore you."
Keyword - dedication
This is word-for-word the title of a book by Cal Newport, who preached his belief there's an overglorification in our society today on pursuing our so-called passions. He argues instead that it should be the other way around: passion for our work comes second to our skills; the more we practice our skills, the more enjoyment we get from doing our work and the benefits of career progress (e.g. salary increase, position growth) follow. I found the book to be incredibly well-written and influential to challenging my former ideas about work. Aside from dedication, the other lesson here is about commitment to a specific craft and the hidden benefits that would come from that.
In this sense, this maxim applies to a lot of other areas of life and not just about careers. The obvious implication is in personal relationships, about being committed to a certain friendship, familial relations, or a special someone. This is especially true when we're first starting out on the last one. As a personal example, I've been dipping into the world of online dating the past few months and was immediately hit by the sheer number of potential partners. At first I approach each date purposely, but eventually took a more casual approach. This is something I saw in some of the dates I saw too, particularly those who admitted they had a lot of online dates. Slowly I changed and came into each date with a diminished sense of commitment, a little more impatient and more ready to jump ship at the first sign of incompatibility. The results spoke for themselves (e.g. nothing). Having realized this, I'm now trying to approach one in a more committed manner and try harder...if there aren't any potential dealbreakers.
Monday, September 23, 2013
Economics of Apple's iPhone 5C
As the whole world is probably aware of it now, Apple's newest generation of iPhone was released last Friday and quickly sold out across many countries. This morning, the company reported a staggering 9 million units sold of both the 5C and 5S flavors. Very impressive for any company but, especially for Apple, it demonstrates that despite all the competition from Google's Android platform, its own iOS and iPhone devices still command a massive following.
What's interesting about all this is the attention and ridicule at Apple's decision to release a cheaper companion to their flagship iPhone. For the current (seventh?) generation, this means the iPhone 5C. The general opinion was that without a cheaper version of the flagship iPhone, Apple would be surrendering a significant portion of the market to Android handset makers like HTC and Samsung. After all, the $650 unsubsidized price for a top-of-the-line iPhone is beyond what most of the world's population can afford. One popular rationale is that the letter "C" in the "5C" represents China, a country in which iPhones have unsupported by its carriers until recently. In short, not pursuing this lower-tier market segment is akin to throwing away good money -- something unacceptable to any rational corporate executive.
Returning to the topic of the new iPhones (5S and 5C), let's review the differences between the two. The infographic below from CNET does an excellent job of comparing the two. In short, the 5C is akin to the previous generation with the exception of being a bit cheaper, lower build quality (e.g. more plastics involved) and available in different colors. Essentially Apple rebranded the previous iPhone 5 into an iPhone 5C, and released an upgraded version known as the iPhone 5S. Nothing too confusing, right?
As an economist, my insight on this strategy of releasing a lower-tier device to go along with a flagship device is simply: it's a very shrewd business decision. People, be them technology critics or the general populace, may whine and scorn Apple's decision to release the iPhone 5C, but they overlook the behavioral element that Apple is targeting.
In economics, this behavior is known as "relatively". One of my favorite economists, Dan Ariely, presented the case so well in his book "Predicably Irrational". Relativity refers to the human tendency to compare their environment or a good relative to another. However, the caveat is that we prefer to compare things that are easily comparable. Ariely first observed this phenomenon in an advertisement to subscribe to the magazine "The Economist", when he was presented with 3 different subscription options: a standalone mailed copy, a standalone online copy, or both a mailed and online copies. I forget the exact number he reported, but the last option was presented as much cheaper than the first two combined. The result is that "The Economist" probably sold the combination option much higher than the first two. (There's also a really good example about honeymoon options from the Wikipedia link above.) The bottom line is, when one is presented with comparable products but one is clearly superior, the superior product tends to get purchased.
Do you see why Apple released the iPhone 5C now? I get that its cheaper price allows greater market penetration than otherwise, but the iPhone 5C also indirectly (yet very effectively) promotes the purchase of the iPhone 5S. This is especially given that the 5S is only $100 more and provides essentially double the performance of the 5C. When your average consumer is presented with the choices of, say, a Samsung GS4, an iPhone 5C, and an iPhone 5S, the 5S would probably win out. Curiosity, it also dissuades any current iPhone users from jumping the ship. Apple ultimately may not move as many units of 5C but the company still wins in the end, regardless. And as the late Steve Jobs puts it so well, "If you don't cannibalize yourself, someone else will".
What's interesting about all this is the attention and ridicule at Apple's decision to release a cheaper companion to their flagship iPhone. For the current (seventh?) generation, this means the iPhone 5C. The general opinion was that without a cheaper version of the flagship iPhone, Apple would be surrendering a significant portion of the market to Android handset makers like HTC and Samsung. After all, the $650 unsubsidized price for a top-of-the-line iPhone is beyond what most of the world's population can afford. One popular rationale is that the letter "C" in the "5C" represents China, a country in which iPhones have unsupported by its carriers until recently. In short, not pursuing this lower-tier market segment is akin to throwing away good money -- something unacceptable to any rational corporate executive.
Returning to the topic of the new iPhones (5S and 5C), let's review the differences between the two. The infographic below from CNET does an excellent job of comparing the two. In short, the 5C is akin to the previous generation with the exception of being a bit cheaper, lower build quality (e.g. more plastics involved) and available in different colors. Essentially Apple rebranded the previous iPhone 5 into an iPhone 5C, and released an upgraded version known as the iPhone 5S. Nothing too confusing, right?
As an economist, my insight on this strategy of releasing a lower-tier device to go along with a flagship device is simply: it's a very shrewd business decision. People, be them technology critics or the general populace, may whine and scorn Apple's decision to release the iPhone 5C, but they overlook the behavioral element that Apple is targeting.
In economics, this behavior is known as "relatively". One of my favorite economists, Dan Ariely, presented the case so well in his book "Predicably Irrational". Relativity refers to the human tendency to compare their environment or a good relative to another. However, the caveat is that we prefer to compare things that are easily comparable. Ariely first observed this phenomenon in an advertisement to subscribe to the magazine "The Economist", when he was presented with 3 different subscription options: a standalone mailed copy, a standalone online copy, or both a mailed and online copies. I forget the exact number he reported, but the last option was presented as much cheaper than the first two combined. The result is that "The Economist" probably sold the combination option much higher than the first two. (There's also a really good example about honeymoon options from the Wikipedia link above.) The bottom line is, when one is presented with comparable products but one is clearly superior, the superior product tends to get purchased.
Do you see why Apple released the iPhone 5C now? I get that its cheaper price allows greater market penetration than otherwise, but the iPhone 5C also indirectly (yet very effectively) promotes the purchase of the iPhone 5S. This is especially given that the 5S is only $100 more and provides essentially double the performance of the 5C. When your average consumer is presented with the choices of, say, a Samsung GS4, an iPhone 5C, and an iPhone 5S, the 5S would probably win out. Curiosity, it also dissuades any current iPhone users from jumping the ship. Apple ultimately may not move as many units of 5C but the company still wins in the end, regardless. And as the late Steve Jobs puts it so well, "If you don't cannibalize yourself, someone else will".
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
All the Pieces of My Life
There are times in our lives when moments of clarity occur, when everything makes sense and you marvel at its beauty. These are instances in which we are able to transcend beyond our momentary joy, sorrow, pain, and disappointments and look at the so-called "big picture". For me, such a time as this happened yesterday as I left the office, strapped on my helmet, and proceeded to bike home. It had been an exhaustive day, compounded by the previous night's over-physical exertion at playing basketball. In short, I felt physically and mentally drained -- ready for nothing better than a long nap.
But as I climbed onto my bike and started the journey home, something amazing hit me. As I began to consider about my accomplishments and endeavors recently, I realized just how blessed a life I have lived and how blessed I have been. This thought quickly turned into a "high" that stayed with me for the rest of the evening. (Regrettably, I should have written this blog post last night instead of the day after. I don't feel exactly the same as yesterday....)
These past few months have been a trying time in my life, as I wrestled with failures/disappointments, struggled through various ordeals, and challenged to do many things. One has been the seemingly never-ending search for a new job as I am being laid off my current position. Ironically, I fully understood that it was going to be about attrition but nonetheless felt burned out from all the applying and interviewing. Despite telling myself that I would restart my job applications after returning from my recent vacation to China, I have not posted a single job application since my return. I suppose I either lowered my expectations or gave up entirely -- opting to see through the leads that I had on hand. Admittedly I had grown bitter at my current position, particularly from a perceived sense of being underutilized as well as underappreciated. The latter being highlighted after an insinuation from my manager that in spite of being in line for a promotion, that I wouldn't be because "I wasn't ready." I have been waiting to hear back from the federal government for a new position, in addition from AOL for a seemingly career-moving new role. However, both seemed to be moving very slow and I was beginning to hate the uncertainly of it all.
The second major area of struggle was with relationships with others, namely in dating. Most repeat readers of this blog now should know about the girl named "Mandy", who has left this country last year for her motherland...indefinitely. I had fallen hard for her and it was incredibly depressing at the time to have walked away with nothing but half-empty memories. In the months since, I have told myself to forget about her and move on to someone else -- striving to believe in the proverbial "plenty of fish in the sea" saying. But alas, things simply have not worked out. The girlfriend I liked the most has been someone significantly older in age and, while age wasn't absolutely, it remains a powerful determinant of our habits and thinking. In short, it eventually dawned upon both of us that we were at different stages in our lives; for her my numerous pursuits were a worrying sign of "restlessness" whereas for me, her comfort with the status quo and constant exhaustion overcame her cuteness. We broke up after about 4 months of dating and I'm single again. Since attending a coworker's wedding a week ago, the thought of what could have been with Mandy awakened bitterness that I thought was put to rest.
The third and final major area of struggle is the contrast between where I am and where I want to be. In other words, how I measured against the expectations I had cast on myself and the things that I wanted. For example, I wanted to buy a condo or a house but this likelihood is greatly diminished by the lack of capital in face of Arlington's insane real estate prices. Other examples include a new sports car, a cool dog, and being able to buy parents a lakefront house. Are you beginning to see the pattern? All these things require finances that I do not have, but deeply longing for. Since returning from China, I have visibly been thinking more about money and how to make more of it to spend. But not just spending it on myself. I long for the ability to help others in a significant manner, such as being able to lift my entire extended family out of poverty.
All three struggles or challenges articulated, now let us return to that moment of enlightenment discussed in the beginning. I think I realized something yesterday, something so profound that it affects my own opinion of the future and of my own capabilities. This thing is: endeavor coupled together with persistence. From my recent adventures on Udacity to learn about entrepreneurship, it dawned upon me that my greatest asset is a refusal to succumb to determinism. Personally, it pains me to not strive for something that I want; failures will come and it hurts like hell when I fail, but the silver lining is knowing that I tried to do something rather than doing nothing. The positive term for this is constant "self-improvement" and a lesser term is being a "perfectionist". This is the reason why I have started my own consulting company last year, and the same reason I want to open a restaurant despite a complete lack of industry knowledge and expertise.
In addition to endeavoring, I realized that I had become too focused on the things I thought I lacked and on the things that did not work out. In other words, realizing that I had become a cynic. I had increasingly mired myself with thoughts about not having achieved what I wanted, when all along there are much more important things at play. Or more importantly, there are things I did achieve. I am in a very different place where I was even a few months ago -- less naive perhaps, but a more mature and altogether better self. I discovered a resilience that I didn't know I had, as well as creativity that I believed was only found in artists. For all the things I didn't have, I still have wonderful things like a cohesive family, good health, gainful employment, and awesome friends. I think in hindsight I have made the most of the majority of the opportunities given, taken action when I could. Even when I shouldn't have, I took action and did something. Even when I failed, I learned valuable lessons.
Life, as they say, is beautiful. It is also what you make of it. Don't get caught up in the little things, nor try fruitlessly to restore karma to the world. Be open minded and strive for the things you want. As Conan said, "work hard, be kind, and amazing things will happen". I'll also add something from a proverbs book I read -- "shoot for the moon, if you miss, you'll land amongst the stars".
But as I climbed onto my bike and started the journey home, something amazing hit me. As I began to consider about my accomplishments and endeavors recently, I realized just how blessed a life I have lived and how blessed I have been. This thought quickly turned into a "high" that stayed with me for the rest of the evening. (Regrettably, I should have written this blog post last night instead of the day after. I don't feel exactly the same as yesterday....)
These past few months have been a trying time in my life, as I wrestled with failures/disappointments, struggled through various ordeals, and challenged to do many things. One has been the seemingly never-ending search for a new job as I am being laid off my current position. Ironically, I fully understood that it was going to be about attrition but nonetheless felt burned out from all the applying and interviewing. Despite telling myself that I would restart my job applications after returning from my recent vacation to China, I have not posted a single job application since my return. I suppose I either lowered my expectations or gave up entirely -- opting to see through the leads that I had on hand. Admittedly I had grown bitter at my current position, particularly from a perceived sense of being underutilized as well as underappreciated. The latter being highlighted after an insinuation from my manager that in spite of being in line for a promotion, that I wouldn't be because "I wasn't ready." I have been waiting to hear back from the federal government for a new position, in addition from AOL for a seemingly career-moving new role. However, both seemed to be moving very slow and I was beginning to hate the uncertainly of it all.
The second major area of struggle was with relationships with others, namely in dating. Most repeat readers of this blog now should know about the girl named "Mandy", who has left this country last year for her motherland...indefinitely. I had fallen hard for her and it was incredibly depressing at the time to have walked away with nothing but half-empty memories. In the months since, I have told myself to forget about her and move on to someone else -- striving to believe in the proverbial "plenty of fish in the sea" saying. But alas, things simply have not worked out. The girlfriend I liked the most has been someone significantly older in age and, while age wasn't absolutely, it remains a powerful determinant of our habits and thinking. In short, it eventually dawned upon both of us that we were at different stages in our lives; for her my numerous pursuits were a worrying sign of "restlessness" whereas for me, her comfort with the status quo and constant exhaustion overcame her cuteness. We broke up after about 4 months of dating and I'm single again. Since attending a coworker's wedding a week ago, the thought of what could have been with Mandy awakened bitterness that I thought was put to rest.
The third and final major area of struggle is the contrast between where I am and where I want to be. In other words, how I measured against the expectations I had cast on myself and the things that I wanted. For example, I wanted to buy a condo or a house but this likelihood is greatly diminished by the lack of capital in face of Arlington's insane real estate prices. Other examples include a new sports car, a cool dog, and being able to buy parents a lakefront house. Are you beginning to see the pattern? All these things require finances that I do not have, but deeply longing for. Since returning from China, I have visibly been thinking more about money and how to make more of it to spend. But not just spending it on myself. I long for the ability to help others in a significant manner, such as being able to lift my entire extended family out of poverty.
All three struggles or challenges articulated, now let us return to that moment of enlightenment discussed in the beginning. I think I realized something yesterday, something so profound that it affects my own opinion of the future and of my own capabilities. This thing is: endeavor coupled together with persistence. From my recent adventures on Udacity to learn about entrepreneurship, it dawned upon me that my greatest asset is a refusal to succumb to determinism. Personally, it pains me to not strive for something that I want; failures will come and it hurts like hell when I fail, but the silver lining is knowing that I tried to do something rather than doing nothing. The positive term for this is constant "self-improvement" and a lesser term is being a "perfectionist". This is the reason why I have started my own consulting company last year, and the same reason I want to open a restaurant despite a complete lack of industry knowledge and expertise.
In addition to endeavoring, I realized that I had become too focused on the things I thought I lacked and on the things that did not work out. In other words, realizing that I had become a cynic. I had increasingly mired myself with thoughts about not having achieved what I wanted, when all along there are much more important things at play. Or more importantly, there are things I did achieve. I am in a very different place where I was even a few months ago -- less naive perhaps, but a more mature and altogether better self. I discovered a resilience that I didn't know I had, as well as creativity that I believed was only found in artists. For all the things I didn't have, I still have wonderful things like a cohesive family, good health, gainful employment, and awesome friends. I think in hindsight I have made the most of the majority of the opportunities given, taken action when I could. Even when I shouldn't have, I took action and did something. Even when I failed, I learned valuable lessons.
Life, as they say, is beautiful. It is also what you make of it. Don't get caught up in the little things, nor try fruitlessly to restore karma to the world. Be open minded and strive for the things you want. As Conan said, "work hard, be kind, and amazing things will happen". I'll also add something from a proverbs book I read -- "shoot for the moon, if you miss, you'll land amongst the stars".
Tuesday, July 24, 2012
Thoughts on "First Love" and "Family Strife"
[I know. I've been bad again at posting on this blog. 'Tis what it is...]
Figured I'd spend some time on sharing some thoughts I've had over the past few days on two concepts/ideas that have weighted upon me.
"First Love"
The first is the idea of a "first love", defined in romantic terminology as someone who one falls for utterly and completely. It's not a new concept but one that has been often discussed and experienced even more since the dawn of mankind. To put it simply, I think everyone at some point in their lives meets their "first love". Whether or not that special person becomes something else, something more, is entirely another question.
For those who have read other postings on this blog, you know that I have been very much obsessed with a girl named Mandy. She is incredible, gorgeous, quirky, amazing, and....doesn't like me back. I have tried again and again but to no avail. A couple of months ago I found out she would be leaving this country completely for a doctorate elsewhere, and was inevitably turned down for the last time (in a farewell dinner though, not even a date...). Amidst all the ensuing doom and gloom, I noticed something very peculiar about my thoughts and disposition toward Mandy -- I still really like her, immediately willing to forget all the past disappointment if she gives me the chance. Now this sounds utterly irrational, doesn't it?
I think the underlying reason for my irrationality is that, simply put, she is my "first love". Although it's an artificial construct molded out of feelings and sentiments, it nonetheless can captivate us to the point of not wanting to let go and move on. Oftentimes we'd rather be dwell on this one person -- than being open to our surroundings and others around us. In words, forsaking a "first love" is akin to tossing out an identity that maybe we shouldn't have -- but ultimately did-- nurture. I'm going to go a step further in my definition though. Unlike "crushes" or "fancies", a "first love" is different in that it's the first time we have been willing to bet our future on someone else -- like we would have done whatever for this person. In my own example, in hindsight the possibility of being together with Mandy probably shaped my post-college decision to move back to the same city she was living in. I suppose now it just feels incredibly disappointing to not have this aspiration work out.
"Family Strife"
The second thought is on the topic of family strife, most likely in terms of parents bickering/fighting between themselves. This one is dear to me as it addresses the situation with my own parents, who have been fighting erratically-yet-acrimoniously for the better past of the past 12 years. Personally, I feel that their points of contention are petty and both exhibit a shameful amount of pride. But their fighting being my reality, I have also striven to repair their relationship as much as I possibly could -- from washing dishes and doing other chores, to shielding my younger sibling from the blunt of their arguments. Until yesterday I thought that both parents have learned to be more respectful and caring toward one another, yet all it took was a spat over who was cooking dinner for this presumption to come crashing down.
Now I realize that this family strife will never end and, one day, will result in a divorce. There is simply too much animosity, stubbornness, and unwillingness to turn the other cheek to save the marriage/relationship. Until it happens I will continue to pray and work toward preventing the breakup from happening but, as true now as it was 12 years ago, I am simply powerless to do anything. Perhaps the following quote from the character JD in the television show "Scrubs" best describes my sentiments on this matter:
"The mistake we make is thinking our parents will change. And maybe they did a better job than we give them credit for. And maybe there, amid all the crap they dumped on us, are some things worth keeping. Like a passion for something you never knew you had. Or the ability to constantly surround yourself with people who love you."
Reflecting in all of this, it seems this undesired strife also shaped my outlook and general disposition on my surroundings -- as a very optimistic individual, and someone easy to get along with.
Figured I'd spend some time on sharing some thoughts I've had over the past few days on two concepts/ideas that have weighted upon me.
"First Love"
The first is the idea of a "first love", defined in romantic terminology as someone who one falls for utterly and completely. It's not a new concept but one that has been often discussed and experienced even more since the dawn of mankind. To put it simply, I think everyone at some point in their lives meets their "first love". Whether or not that special person becomes something else, something more, is entirely another question.
For those who have read other postings on this blog, you know that I have been very much obsessed with a girl named Mandy. She is incredible, gorgeous, quirky, amazing, and....doesn't like me back. I have tried again and again but to no avail. A couple of months ago I found out she would be leaving this country completely for a doctorate elsewhere, and was inevitably turned down for the last time (in a farewell dinner though, not even a date...). Amidst all the ensuing doom and gloom, I noticed something very peculiar about my thoughts and disposition toward Mandy -- I still really like her, immediately willing to forget all the past disappointment if she gives me the chance. Now this sounds utterly irrational, doesn't it?
I think the underlying reason for my irrationality is that, simply put, she is my "first love". Although it's an artificial construct molded out of feelings and sentiments, it nonetheless can captivate us to the point of not wanting to let go and move on. Oftentimes we'd rather be dwell on this one person -- than being open to our surroundings and others around us. In words, forsaking a "first love" is akin to tossing out an identity that maybe we shouldn't have -- but ultimately did-- nurture. I'm going to go a step further in my definition though. Unlike "crushes" or "fancies", a "first love" is different in that it's the first time we have been willing to bet our future on someone else -- like we would have done whatever for this person. In my own example, in hindsight the possibility of being together with Mandy probably shaped my post-college decision to move back to the same city she was living in. I suppose now it just feels incredibly disappointing to not have this aspiration work out.
"Family Strife"
The second thought is on the topic of family strife, most likely in terms of parents bickering/fighting between themselves. This one is dear to me as it addresses the situation with my own parents, who have been fighting erratically-yet-acrimoniously for the better past of the past 12 years. Personally, I feel that their points of contention are petty and both exhibit a shameful amount of pride. But their fighting being my reality, I have also striven to repair their relationship as much as I possibly could -- from washing dishes and doing other chores, to shielding my younger sibling from the blunt of their arguments. Until yesterday I thought that both parents have learned to be more respectful and caring toward one another, yet all it took was a spat over who was cooking dinner for this presumption to come crashing down.
Now I realize that this family strife will never end and, one day, will result in a divorce. There is simply too much animosity, stubbornness, and unwillingness to turn the other cheek to save the marriage/relationship. Until it happens I will continue to pray and work toward preventing the breakup from happening but, as true now as it was 12 years ago, I am simply powerless to do anything. Perhaps the following quote from the character JD in the television show "Scrubs" best describes my sentiments on this matter:
"The mistake we make is thinking our parents will change. And maybe they did a better job than we give them credit for. And maybe there, amid all the crap they dumped on us, are some things worth keeping. Like a passion for something you never knew you had. Or the ability to constantly surround yourself with people who love you."
Reflecting in all of this, it seems this undesired strife also shaped my outlook and general disposition on my surroundings -- as a very optimistic individual, and someone easy to get along with.
Friday, April 15, 2011
Government Budget (Woes)
It's been a few weeks since I wrote a blog entry. Once again, the reasons can mostly be attributed to a laziness impacted by work and schoolwork. Doesn't make much sense...but that's my story and I am sticking to it.
Anyway, I wanted to take this time to write about the current debates involving the national budget for the current fiscal year as well as for the future. Last week's potential government shutdown was avoided by the passing of a spending bill that seemed to satisfy the Republicans' demands for spending cuts -- approximately $40 billion for the rest of the fiscal year. This seems like a staggering amount but, on closer look, the cuts are probably less than $350 million. The reason you may ask? Most of the cuts from the budget are for non-existing programs, aka programs that are supposed to be instated in the future but now never will. But of course, most people do not understand this concept and thus only see the $40 billion number.
A couple of hours ago, it was announced that the U.S. House of Representatives (currently with a Republican majority) that seeks to $4.4 trillion from the budget for the next decade. Democrats are obviously in uproar over the fact that most cuts will come from social programs like Medicare and Medicaid. Republicans are probably grinning to themselves as they just cast a lighted bomb into the President's court. President Obama has only two choices: (1) defuse the bomb through his veto power, or (2) try to work a compromise with the Republicans. This logic is assuming the implausible scenario that the budget gets approved by the U.S. Senate.
I just wanted to express a few thoughts on two topics -- the first is about how these spending cuts are quantified, a very deceptive process. The second is about the nature of government and its role in society. As someone much influenced by neoclassical economics, I believe in a smaller government and allowing the people to determine their own lives.
First about how spending is quantified:
- As in all cases, the figure thrown out seems fantastic: $4.4 trillion compares to the annual $14 trillion of U.S. GDP. However, this figure is always an accumulated figure over a period of time. In this case, the time horizon is 10 years, which means that we are looking about an average of $440 billion per year. Now this still a very high figure but...
- ...this figure is the best-case-scenario, which means $440 billion is the most one can expect to cut from the spending. The real cuts will be significantly less. Furthermore, the time horizon of 10 years masks the fact that spending cuts is an exponential function if graphed: most cuts will occur at the end of the 10-year period, rather than the beginning. This brings up another important point...
- ...the fiscal budget for the federal government must be passed from year-to-year. This means that each administration and Congress can propose new budgets for the next year, and so forth. What are the odds the future governments will stick with this current budget? Answer is: zero, nada, not even if Republicans held both the executive and legislative branches for the next 10 years.
- In sum, the real spending cuts are very much insignificant given the above points. I'd be surprised if even $50 billion is cut from next year's budget (out of the supposed $440 billion proposed cuts).
Now about the role of government in society and how this relates to the budget:
- It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see where the bulk of the cuts is coming from: social safety programs like Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security to a lesser extent (I haven't seen the details so the last one is largely an assumption). Democrats are in uproar as well as senior citizens, since either their party platform or their livelihood is being targeted. After all, it was FDR, one of the greatest Democratic leaders, who lay the foundation for these programs.
- Democrats are also in uproar over the budget's proposal to streamline the current tax code and reduce taxes across the board. They (of course) push for the elimination of tax breaks for the wealthy. The general populace agree with them, as American corporations are making record profits and the annual list of millionaires/billionaires keeps growing.
- My opinion over the role of government is biased as a I studied economics back in college, and heavily influenced by libertarian ideas as in the writings of Milton Friedman. But I do think that social programs are not the best means to help the needy -- something I supported with a 100-page senior thesis. Social programs serve the good-intention of providing a safety net for individuals, but its mandatory nature is wrong and reduces in prodigious waste. In addition, they create a very negative disincentive for individuals to work and strive for better livelihoods. If it was a clear cut between social programs or no social programs, then I'd argue for the latter.
- But it is political suicide for any politician to push for a complete elimination of social programs, once they have been introduced. The only recourse is to reduce their scope and their impact on the country's finances -- which is actually the optimal (Pareto efficient) solution. In other words, we should have only a few social programs that are truly beneficial.
- For example, I do not understand the difference between Medicare and Medicaid (okay, I do but it seems redundant). I am all for helping out the poor and underprivileged, but creating a wholly different system to cater to their needs is not the answer. For one, it is not fair for the taxpayers who fund these systems; and for another, it creates a perverse incentive against "self-help".
- As someone who studied the negative income tax, I really believe it is the best means to resolve the social woes -- in addition to eliminating the requirement to contribute to social programs. Thus in an ideal world, I would see citizens as having the option to contribute or not to social programs (the latter of which means they would be excluded) and for government to pay out fixed income instead of an amalgam of different programs. Much like the tax code, if we create conditions, then the end-result would be many loops that people ultimately exploit.
I want to end by pointing out a monstrous thing about the budget: defense spending accounts for a good 1/3 of the government spending year-in and year-out. This is absolutely ridiculous!
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