Predictions for AMD

AMD stock prices have fallen roughly 20% combined in the past couple of days, precipitated by the changing of guard in its top leadership. Lisa Su has replaced Rory Read as the new CEO of AMD, becoming the first female top executive in the company. The general sentiment on Wall Street appears to favor Lisa Su, but concerned about the timing of the announcement. To say the least, the change is both unexpected and abrupt, belied by the company's Q3 earnings release next Wednesday (10/15). 

Unfortunately for me, I made a significant purchase of AMD stock a couple of days ago (which means I'm effectively down 20% on my new investment). This also means that had I had this foresight, then I would have been able to acquire 20% more AMD stock had I waited 2 days. Sometimes the market gets you. Good thing I'm a value investor...

To keep this post short, I'll just share my immediate thoughts about the recent events for AMD:

1. I remain bullish on the company and its future outlook. While the past couple of years have been tough, with the company squeezed between a rock (Intel) and a hard place (Nvidia), portfolio diversification of AMD's product lines has started paying dividends. Its new initiative in ARM chips and monopoly over current generation consoles (e.g. Xbox One PS4, Wii U) will at very least guarantee steady income for the next 5 years. That being said...
2. ...the stock will fall some more before next week is over. I'm predicting a weaker than expected revenue growth for its Q3 earnings, which I suspect is the reason Rory Read was ousted so suddenly and unexpectedly. Expectation is for the stock to fall to around $2.20 before it climbs back up.
3. Lenovo will begin offering much more products with AMD chipsets than previously. Despite the announcement yesterday of Lenovo Yoga 3 Pro series, which marks the first use of Intel's newest Core M line of processors, I firmly believe that new CEO Lisa Su's background as a former executive in Lenovo will influence her old company to adopt more AMD chipsets. Everyone may be praising her technical and industry background, the elephant in the room is that Lenovo is currently world's #1 computer manufacturer. Intel may boast faster chips but 90% of Lenovo's user base will neither notice the speed difference, nor particularly care if they're given an AMD-based laptop instead. AMD's chips are cheaper than Intel's so there's that to seal this deal.

Taking the 3 points above together, it seems clear to me that AMD is a severely undervalued stock at the moment and has incredible upside in the next couple of years. It has a promising product roadmap ahead that targets industries that its direct competitors in Nvidia and Intel have largely ignored. With both Nvidia and Intel firmly entrenched (and struggling) to battle it out in the ARM market with the likes of Qualcomm and MediaTrek, this is a chance for AMD to buckle down and get ahead. Needless to say, I'll be looking to further increasing my AMD stake next week.

Personal Life Maxims

I've been pondering on this for a while and figured I'd finally jot down (and share) on the "maxims" I strive to live by. Sometimes I fall short but try to live by the following as much as possible. In my opinion, "maxims" are the foundations or a set of rules one aspires to uphold all the time and in every situation.

In no particular order:

1. "Dance with the one who brought you."
Keyword - loyalty

This is an expression I read in Randy Pausch's famous "Last Lecture" book, and speaks beyond just the phenomenon of attending a dance (e.g. prom, gala, etc.) with a partner. It should be applied to all areas of life, including work relations, friends, and even family. While it may be tempting to jump ship for whatever benefits a new opportunity holds, it means more to stay the course and standby the people who gave you the initial opportunity. Not only is it about loyalty, but also being thankful to those who helped you in the past.

A personal example happened last year, shortly after I started work as a federal employee. Deloitte made me a generous offer that I ultimately declined. The backstory is they had tried to recruit me months prior but couldn't make an offer due to hiring freeze at the time. Overall it was an agonizing decision because it seemed like a perfect fit for my background in finance/economics but also mixed in IT project management. I pondered, spoke to my boss, and in the end decided to stay the course. The main reason was understanding the effort my boss had put it to bring me onboard, and his plans to help me develop. That's not to say I will forever remain in this position, but for now that is the case.

2. "I have no special talent; I'm only passionately curious about everything."
Keyword - humility

This is a quotation from Albert Einstein, who I presume was speaking about the perception that he was a supremely talented and a natural-born genius. The lesson to learn here is that opportunities come and go, oftentimes completely independent of our actions or abilities. Again, it's about the people who helped us get somewhere and perhaps of a higher power that granted us the opportunity. It's not about self-deprecation but acknowledging that we're not omnipotent and should never be fully comfortable with where we are. This should especially translate to our interactions with those around us, regardless of their position compared to our own. We're in this together.

My personal example is constantly reminding myself that despite of my position as a manager, I'm not much better than anyone else from the streets. I'm where I am and do what I do because of my team, boss, organization, friends, family, and God. This helps keeps things in perspective.

3. "Count your blessings."
Keyword - thankfulness

As a so-called "go-getter", I find myself sometimes unhappy because something didn't happen or work out that would have improved my life considerably or even marginally. In my striving towards things like career development and romantic relationships, I take the things and people I have for granted. I suspect I'm not the only one who does this, but it's a flawed person trait I try to right. It's almost an incessant questioning of what we lack that, if held unchecked, can cause us to be depressed when we ought to be experiencing the complete opposite.

I don't have a concrete example to share, other than being mindful of things like how I have gainful employment, live in a war-free zone, and am essentially the master of my own destiny. I'm not even hindered by any allergies or physical abnormalities. Most of the world can't even come close to that. In the end it's about finding a balance between striving towards goals yet being cognizant of the present situation, being grateful for the countless good things we have.

4. "If you have the power to make a difference, you should put it to good use."
Keyword - generosity

I like to combine this one with another lesson from Randy Pausch's book, called "enabling the dreams of others." This expression itself comes from an anime show I used to watch long ago, about young pilot trying to protect his friends during a massive war. While this sounds like the common phrase of "paying it forward" and is generally in the same spirit, in my opinion it's bigger picture. Making a difference isn't easy and the hardest part is recognizing those opportunities to make an impact, for someone or a specific cause. Oftentimes it involves going out of your way for someone else, group of people, or organization, to help them achieve their dream.

In many ways, the lesson is being unselfish and recognizing that we are altogether instead of living in our own paneled homes. So why shouldn't we help out our fellow man, woman, or child? There's again an undertone of being grateful for what we have and wanting to share our perceived successes. Another take on this is that I owe it to not myself but to others to take action, to fight off the inclination to be apathetic and defer to someone else to do something greater. We each have more power to make a difference than we first think.

5. "Cherish your loved ones."
Keyword - priority

This one is a no-brainer but it's funny how quickly we can forget about this and instead be devoted to other things like our hobbies and careers. Workaholic-ism is an openly admired trait in our society, especially for private companies where there is no extraneous benefits like overtime. But when we take a step back and think about it, no one wishes they had worked more in their deathbeds. We'd always wish that we had more time to spend with our families, friends, and other loved ones (e.g. pets). In a way, it's recognizing and remembering the fragility of life and how we may live differently if we knew today was our last. I suspect our priorities would change dramatically shift if that was the case.

6. "Understand your Detroit and accepting that you can't go."
Keyword - peace

This maxim derives from a book by Jack Welch I read and comes from the example of a GE employee that was offered a terrific position by another company, that happened to be located in Detroit rather than the city he was working in. The decision should have been a no-brainer except for the fact that the employee had a family to take care of, whom were well planted in their existing location. In the end, he chose not to take the position. The lesson is that many opportunities will come up throughout our lives, sometimes amazing opportunities that we eventually have to turn down for one reason or another. In the example given, it was family but could be almost anything. The import thing is to accept the reasons why we can't take up those opportunities and thus be willing to let them go.

This is different from Maxim #1 because the emphasis isn't so much on loyalty as on circumstances and the potential adverse impact of our actions on others around us. Ultimately it's about being at peace with our decisions and moving on, rather than frequently looking back and wondering the "what could've been". Life is too short to be burdened down with regret and if you're optimistic, then you'll realize that other amazing opportunities will come along. Maybe not today but probably tomorrow. One door closing now doesn't mean it won't be open again in the future, or another door be opened for you.

7. "Be so good they can't ignore you."
Keyword - dedication

This is word-for-word the title of a book by Cal Newport, who preached his belief there's an overglorification in our society today on pursuing our so-called passions. He argues instead that it should be the other way around: passion for our work comes second to our skills; the more we practice our skills, the more enjoyment we get from doing our work and the benefits of career progress (e.g. salary increase, position growth) follow. I found the book to be incredibly well-written and influential to challenging my former ideas about work. Aside from dedication, the other lesson here is about commitment to a specific craft and the hidden benefits that would come from that.

In this sense, this maxim applies to a lot of other areas of life and not just about careers. The obvious implication is in personal relationships, about being committed to a certain friendship, familial relations, or a special someone. This is especially true when we're first starting out on the last one. As a personal example, I've been dipping into the world of online dating the past few months and was immediately hit by the sheer number of potential partners. At first I approach each date purposely, but eventually took a more casual approach. This is something I saw in some of the dates I saw too, particularly those who admitted they had a lot of online dates. Slowly I changed and came into each date with a diminished sense of commitment, a little more impatient and more ready to jump ship at the first sign of incompatibility. The results spoke for themselves (e.g. nothing). Having realized this, I'm now trying to approach one in a more committed manner and try harder...if there aren't any potential dealbreakers.

Enabling the Dreams of Others

For voracious readers out there, the title of this post is a reference to the book The Last Lectureby the late Carnegie Mellon professor Randy Pausch. It is an amazing book -- made more so as it was written from the perspective of a person dying of cancer. After reading the book, I really wish I had met Randy before he passed away (though you can see his lecture here). But this will not be a book review; instead, I am borrowing from Randy to elaborate the ideas in the chapter of his book of the same name ("Part IV: Enabling the Dreams of Others").

I believe that the element of "kindness" has become increasingly rarer in the society we live in. As discussed previously, our society has become enamored with the trappings of wealth and power. Money has been transformed from a medium facilitating exchange of goods to a means of validating our self-worth and, to make matters worse, in measuring ourselves to our peers. This preoccupation with money has led us to become selfish individuals who look at the world as a zero-sum game: the giving to others lessens what we have. I know of this attitude very well, because I am guilty of it.

When I see homeless individuals on the street corner, my immediate reaction is to avoid them or, if that is not possible, ignore them. Sometimes I do give them spare change, but the resulting feeling is the same -- being slightly disgusted with myself at this perceived coldness. I can rationalize all I want about the reasons for my actions: (1) homeless people are lazy, (2) they'll just use whatever I give them to buy alcohol or drugs, (3) it will give them false hope, and (4) whatever I give will only provide marginal benefits. But when I reflect upon my actions, the (damning) conclusion I see is an obvious lack of kindness toward others. Whatever happened to empathy and compassion that the Bible talks about? I would be a hypocrite to not admit that I am a lesser Christian for not following through on the teachings in the scripture.

Self-deprecation aside, the truth is that in our daily interactions, there are always opportunities to be kind to others. Whether this is tipping the nice cashier or holding the door for the person behind you, there are daily instances of these episodes by which we can be kind to someone else. This "other" person could be a complete stranger but when someone is in need, their affiliation/relationship with you should not matter. I wouldn't be wrong to argue that as kindness is identical to altruism (yes there are nuanced differences), our actions should be labeled as such if there were ulterior motives. For example, if you hold open a door because you are romantically interested in the person behind you, you aren't really being kind, are you?

Yet we are going to take this a step further, to the realm of hopes and dreams. Superficially, this is always desiring to help others when you are in the position of doing so. For example, if someone is looking for employment in your company, you can contact the hiring manager and/or refer this individual. Sometimes companies offer bonuses for successful referrals -- so it's a win-win situation. Or you can start by agreeing to become someone's professional reference, or writing a positive letter of recommendation. The basic rule of thumb is this: if you are ever have the power to do something, you should put it to good use. Outside of career employment, you can introduce potential lovers to one another or just offer help when someone needs it. The foundation is desiring to become an enabler for another -- even if the path they chose eventually diverges from their original intention. We are to offer help, not to judge.

At the heart of it, enabling the dreams of others takes an attitude of helping others and applies it to younger generations. It's about being an inspiration, a model figure that eventually inspires others to do the same. In The Last Lecture, Pausch uses the example of a former student "Tommy" who offers Pausch's students a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to tour the studios of LucasArts (of Star War renown). He reasons that Tommy did it in gratitude for how Pausch helped guide and inspire him while he was a student -- that Pausch "enabled" his dream. On a practical level, it's about being involved in the local community or in your family to help younger siblings. One should never underestimate the potential of even the softest touch of kindness.

[I think eventually I will be posting something more focused on Pausch's book. It's a truly amazing book that offers many wise anecdotes.]

Overuse of Apologies and "Sorry"

A couple of months ago, I read an article in Men’s Health magazine on the topic of being prepared for “Master[ing] Any Disaster”. The article overall was not every impressive, but I remember one specific subtopic as being very much to the point. That subtopic was titled “Don’t Apologize for Anything – Ever” and, as its title suggests, was about how our culture has become overly apologetic – to the point of throwing out apologies with little meaning attached. Although the author is a little extreme in his viewpoint of advocating that we never offer apologies, I think there nonetheless is merit in what he is advising.

We hear the words “I’m sorry” or “I apologize” being thrown out in everyday situations. Some of us probably are even guilty of such behavior – I think I apologize more for than the average individual. And that is the simple truth: we are a nation of apologizers. There are no perfect people but, perhaps in our quest to attain perfection, we compensate for our shortcoming or screw ups by apologizing for them. For one, apologizing often does make the culprit feel better by creating a sense of exhuming virtuous behavior (e.g. the “I am being the better person” attitude). But the act of apologizing rarely results in eliciting the desired effect of being forgiven for that shortcoming or screw up – at least via the casual utterance of “sorry”. Instead, I will argue that the act of apologizing has the unintended effect on the audience.

How can apologizing have the opposite effect than we intend? Well, there are three main reasons for this. First and foremost, no apology is ever considered sufficient for the mistake committed. Examples include Tiger Wood’s constant apologies for his misdeeds, or the frequent homophobic slurs uttered by athletes and politicians alike. How can words ever bring wholeness to something broken? What we care to see is action, or a decisive commitment to act in the future – and not repeated acts of hosting press conferences to apologize. The second reason tacks onto the first reason: the delivery process and the number of times we apologize. If we are always apologizing, then those we are apologizing to will quickly grow tired of hearing us. In addition, people often do not take apologizing seriously – it takes more than just “I’m sorry about ___”. One should offer an apology with sincerity and reason for it, and be unwilling to walk away without an acknowledgement (not necessarily a resolution) from the audience. The third reason is that apologies generate demand for future punishment. Unfortunately, we tend to be vengeful individuals; we given others a chance to extract revenge on us.

On a personal level, I have been reflecting on this lately. At the workplace, for example, I sometimes apologize for screw ups but often do not hear back about them. Inasmuch as I desire to be seen as responsible, I fear the apologies become a reflection of my incompetence to coworkers. Hence this presents a dilemma: how do you project an image of responsibility and accountability, without being remembered negatively for the screw ups? I think the first step is reducing the number of times I apologize; the second step is to be serious (pretty much what I advocated in the previous paragraph). And in my last email to Mandy, I definitely apologized a bit too much – a lot of self-blame and expressions of guilt. In addition, a couple of days ago I heard a string of “I’m sorry” from Comcast customer representatives about scheduling errors.

The author of the article I read brought up an interesting example of model behavior on the issue of apologizing: George Bush. The former president was ridiculed throughout his presidency for the mistakes he made but, true to the author’s claim, he never (or lately very rarely) admitted failure.

American Dream 2.0: Materialism on Steroids

After reading the article “Why We’re Hooked on Credit” (by Mike Zimerman) in the most recent edition of Men’s Health magazine, I thought it would be good to reflect on the concept of the American Dream. In particular, I want to review how our sense of the American Dream has become perverted through the rampant materialism around us. It should be considered American Dream 2.0 – something more sinister and dangerous than the previous edition.

Most of us know of the American Dream. Or at least most of us have heard of the term mentioned somewhere. The American Dream is essentially an inspiring goal for Americans and non-Americans for the past century or so. Everyone envisions owning a suburban house, two cars and, most importantly, being part of a loving family to enjoy these possessions. For many people, this is the utopia they crave for. Millions of immigrants took (and still take) the risk and traveled to the United States in order to pursue their American Dream. A captivating example is the story of Frank McCourt, as documented in his autobiographies “Angela’s Ashes” and “’Tis”. If we set aside our biased spectacles, the illegal immigrants crossing the border are pursing the same end. Otherwise, why would they leave behind their families and homes for a completely foreign land?

I can relate to this aspiration because I came to this country as an immigrant. To be more exact, my parents made the decision to come here in order to give their children a brighter future (yes, they wanted to further their careers too…). We regarded the United States as the land of opportunity, as well as a land of plenty. This is a place where there was no caste system or other kinds of artificial restrictions to impede one from becoming successful. Success is achievable as long as one has perseverance and work-ethic. I think the film “Pursuit of Happyness” exemplifies this belief – however dramatized Hollywood changed the original story.

Returning to the central thesis of this post, the reality of our notion of the American Dream has become something very different from the one described above. The previous American Dream focused on the happiness as derived from family and friends – with possessions such as houses and cars as secondary. In short, this first iteration of the American Dream emphasized the simplicity of belongings and fullness of relationships. But today we have added many items to the original list of a house and two cars, such as laptops, iPads, flat-screen TVs, and smartphones. While (thankfully) the requirements of hard-work and perseverance has not changed, this trend toward increasing the number of things necessary to fulfill the American Dream is worrying. Our happiness is slowly degenerating into an equation in which it is measured by the number of things we own. Zimmerman refers to this as “AmDream 2.0”.

What makes this trend worrisome is the growing preoccupation in people’s minds about what they do not have. We begin to feel a lack for belongings that effectively divorces us from the importance of human relationships. The goal and focus of our efforts become a preoccupation about how our possessions compare with that of friends and, shockingly, complete strangers. In effect, we create a dangerous arms race that pits everyone against everyone, the have-nots against the haves. Doesn’t this sound like something that comes out of the Communist Manifesto?

Furthermore, this mindset we foster of needing to validate our self-worth through our belongings cuts right into our self-esteem. We are no longer patriotic Americans in the land of opportunity, but as consumption-oriented humans with fevered egos. [Interestingly, in economics we almost always refer to the general public as “consumers”.] We feel that we have the right to own certain things, and in the process begin to forget that we have to earn the means from which to own. Most people do not like being reminded of the earning part and jump right into the owning – through charging their credit cards and taking on debt. This “jump” occurs because people emotionally fear the possibility they will never be able to afford certain things. Ultimately, this emotional fear (derived from seeking self-worth through belongings) can supersede the real fear of the consequences of debt. And here is a serious disconnect.

Although “Fight Club” is no longer one of my favorite movies, I remember the film for its assault on the consumption-glorifying part of our contemporary culture. In particular, I recall this line by the character Tyler Durden “You're not your job. You're not how much money you have in the bank. You're not the car you drive. You're not the contents of your wallet. You're not your fucking khakis. You're the all-singing, all-dancing crap of the world”. We tend to enjoy hearing these bold statements in movies but seldom reflect on their truthfulness. And I think this statement is very true – we are not our jobs, nor cars, nor clothes, nor money. Because all these things are temporal and could cease to exist at any moment. You can be laid-off, your car gets stolen, clothes dirtied, and money stolen.

The essence of the previous paragraph is that we would lead very different lives if we truly realized that things do not last forever. Our lives are limited to a few decades on this earth; in addition, the lives we lead are very fragile. Have you ever witnessed a fatal accident and wondering what if the corpse lying on the roadside had been you? If so, I think it would make one think twice before splurging on a sports car or a gigantic mansion. In the end, what matters is our relationships with one another and the unending joy that derives from this source.

[This caps the first post in a series on special topics about current issues in our society…]